The Malthusian heresy re-emerged in the early 1970s, the last time food prices shot up.
21-3-100
The Malthusian heresy re-emerged in the early 1970s, the last time food prices shot up. Then, at least, there appeared to be some cause for demographic alarm. Global-population growth had picked up sharply after the second world war because it took time for high birth rates in developing countries to follow down the plunge in infant-mortality rates brought about by modern medicine. But once again the worries about overpopulation proved mistaken as the 'green revolution' and further advances in agricultural efficiency boosted food supply.
If the world's population growth was a false concern four decades ago, when it peaked at 2% a year, it is even less so now that it has slowed to 1.2%. But even though crude demography is not to blame, changing lifestyles arising from rapid economic growth especially in Asia are a new worry. As the Chinese have become more affluent, they have started to consume more meat, raising the underlying demand for basic food since cattle need more grain to feed than humans. Neo-Malthusians question whether the world can provide 6.7 billion people (rising to 9.2 billion by 2050) with a Western-style diet.
Once again the gloom is overdone. There may no longer be virgin lands to be settled and cultivated, as in the 19th century, but there is no reason to believe that agricultural productivity has hit a buffer. Indeed, one of the main barriers to another 'green revolution' is unwarranted popular worries about genetically modified foods, which is holding back farm output not just in Europe, but in the developing countries that could use them to boost their exports.
A. 어휘
heresy 異端(이단), 異說(이설). re-emerge 다시 나타나다.
global-population growth 세계인구성장. follow down 따라 내려가다.
plunge 降下(강하), 돌진, 돌입. infant-mortality rates 유아사망률.
agricultural efficiency 농업효율. boost 끌어올리다, 增大(증대)시키다.
a false concern 잘 못된 걱정. now that=since ...이기 때문에. crude 천연그대로의.
demography 인구, 인구학. is not to blame 비난받아서는 아니 된다.
consume 소비하다. underlying demand 기본적 수요. diet 일상의 식품, 음식.
gloom 憂鬱(우울), 암흑. overdone 도가 지나친.
virgin lands to be settled and cultivated 사람들이 정착해서 경작할 수 있는 처녀지.
productivity 생산성. hit a buffer 끝에 달하다. barrier 장애물, 방벽.
unwarranted 보증되지 않은, 부당한. genetically modified foods 유전자변형식품.
hold back 억제하다, 말리다. farm output 농업생산.
B. 구문
- the early 1970s . . . food prices shot up.
cf. 관계부사: 형식→전치사+관계대명사. 기능→형용사절
ex. This is the house. I was born in this house.
→This is the house in which I was born. (전치사+관계대명사: 형용사절)
→This is the house where I was born. (관계부사: 형용사절)
→This is the house I was born. (관계부사 생략)
cf. the last time food prices shot up
→the last time during which food prices shot up.
→the last time when food prices shot up.
→the last time food prices shot up. (관계부사 생략)
[식료품값이 급등한 마지막 시기인 1970년대 초반.]
- it took time for high birth rates . . . by modern medicine.
cf. for high birth rates는 to follow down의 의미상 주어.
[현대의학에 의해 초래된 유아사망률의 급강하에 맞추어, 높은 출산율이 내려가는 데는 시간이 걸렸다.]
21-4-101
Political folly increases in a geometrical ratio
As so often, governments are making matters worse. Food-export bans are proliferating. Although these may produce temporary relief for any one country, the more they spread the tighter global markets become. Another wrongheaded policy has been America's subsidy to domestic ethanol production in a bid to reduce dependence on imported oil. This misconceived attempt to grow more fuel rather than to curb demand is expected to gobble up a third of this year's maize (corn) crop.
Although neo-Malthusianism naturally has much to say about food scarcity, the doctrine emerges more generally as the idea of absolute limits on resources and energy, such as the notion of 'peak oil'. Following the earlier scares of the 1970s, oil companies defied the pessimists by finding extra fields, not least since higher prices had spurred new exploration. But even if oil wells were to run dry, economies can still adapt by finding and exploiting other energy sources.
A new form of Malthusian limit has more recently emerged through the need to constrain greenhouse-gas emissions in order to tackle global warming. But this too can be overcome by shifting to a low-carbon economy. As with agriculture, the main difficulty in making the necessary adjustment comes from poor policies, such as governments' reluctance to impose a carbon tax. There may be curbs on traditional forms of growth, but there is no limit to human ingenuity. That is why Malthus remains as wrong today as he was two centuries ago.
A. 어휘
folly 어리석음, 愚昧(우매). geometrical rate 기하급수적 비율.
food-export bans 식량수출금지. proliferate 增殖(증식)하다. temporary 일시적인.
relief 안심, 한숨 돌리기, 구원. wrong-headed 생각이 틀린, 완고한. policy 정책.
subsidy 보조금. domestic 국내의. bid 노력, 시도, 입찰. reduce 감소시키다.
dependence 의존. imported oil 수입 석유. misconceive 잘못 생각하다, 허방짚다.
gobble 걸신들린 듯이 먹다. a third 3분지 1. maize 옥수수. scarcity 부족, 결핍.
doctrine 원리. emerge 나타나다. absolute limits 절대한계. notion 개념. scare 겁먹기.
defy 감연히 도전하다, 물리치다. pessimist 비관주의자. fields 油田(유전).
spur 고무하다, 자극하다, 박차를 가하다. not least since 가장 큰 이유는 ...때문에.
exploration 探鑛(탐광). oil wells 油田. adapt 적응하다. exploit 개발하다.
constrain 억제하다. emission 排出(배출). tackle 대결하다. shifting 전환. carbon 탄소.
adjustment 적응, 조정. reluctance 싫음. impose 부과하다. curb 고삐, 속박, 억제.
traditional forms of growth 전통적 형태의 발전. ingenuity 영리함, 발명의 재간.
B. 구문
- the more they spread the tighter . . . markets become.
cf. the+비교급, the+비교급→...을 더 ...하면 할 수록 더 ...하다.
ex. The more, the better. 多多益善(다다익선).
- Although neo-Malthusianism . . . the notion of “peak oil”
[비록 新(신) Malthus주의자들이 식량부족에 대해 할 말이 많겠지만, 그들의 이론은 “peak oil(석유매장량의 한계)” 개념 같이 에너지와 자원의 절대적 한계의 개념으로 나타난다.(석유매장량에 한계가 있듯이 모든 자원에는 한계가 있으므로 인구의 증가는 재앙이 될 것이라는 것).]
21-3-100
The Malthusian heresy re-emerged in the early 1970s, the last time food prices shot up. Then, at least, there appeared to be some cause for demographic alarm. Global-population growth had picked up sharply after the second world war because it took time for high birth rates in developing countries to follow down the plunge in infant-mortality rates brought about by modern medicine. But once again the worries about overpopulation proved mistaken as the 'green revolution' and further advances in agricultural efficiency boosted food supply.
If the world's population growth was a false concern four decades ago, when it peaked at 2% a year, it is even less so now that it has slowed to 1.2%. But even though crude demography is not to blame, changing lifestyles arising from rapid economic growth especially in Asia are a new worry. As the Chinese have become more affluent, they have started to consume more meat, raising the underlying demand for basic food since cattle need more grain to feed than humans. Neo-Malthusians question whether the world can provide 6.7 billion people (rising to 9.2 billion by 2050) with a Western-style diet.
Once again the gloom is overdone. There may no longer be virgin lands to be settled and cultivated, as in the 19th century, but there is no reason to believe that agricultural productivity has hit a buffer. Indeed, one of the main barriers to another 'green revolution' is unwarranted popular worries about genetically modified foods, which is holding back farm output not just in Europe, but in the developing countries that could use them to boost their exports.
A. 어휘
heresy 異端(이단), 異說(이설). re-emerge 다시 나타나다.
global-population growth 세계인구성장. follow down 따라 내려가다.
plunge 降下(강하), 돌진, 돌입. infant-mortality rates 유아사망률.
agricultural efficiency 농업효율. boost 끌어올리다, 增大(증대)시키다.
a false concern 잘 못된 걱정. now that=since ...이기 때문에. crude 천연그대로의.
demography 인구, 인구학. is not to blame 비난받아서는 아니 된다.
consume 소비하다. underlying demand 기본적 수요. diet 일상의 식품, 음식.
gloom 憂鬱(우울), 암흑. overdone 도가 지나친.
virgin lands to be settled and cultivated 사람들이 정착해서 경작할 수 있는 처녀지.
productivity 생산성. hit a buffer 끝에 달하다. barrier 장애물, 방벽.
unwarranted 보증되지 않은, 부당한. genetically modified foods 유전자변형식품.
hold back 억제하다, 말리다. farm output 농업생산.
B. 구문
- the early 1970s . . . food prices shot up.
cf. 관계부사: 형식→전치사+관계대명사. 기능→형용사절
ex. This is the house. I was born in this house.
→This is the house in which I was born. (전치사+관계대명사: 형용사절)
→This is the house where I was born. (관계부사: 형용사절)
→This is the house I was born. (관계부사 생략)
cf. the last time food prices shot up
→the last time during which food prices shot up.
→the last time when food prices shot up.
→the last time food prices shot up. (관계부사 생략)
[식료품값이 급등한 마지막 시기인 1970년대 초반.]
- it took time for high birth rates . . . by modern medicine.
cf. for high birth rates는 to follow down의 의미상 주어.
[현대의학에 의해 초래된 유아사망률의 급강하에 맞추어, 높은 출산율이 내려가는 데는 시간이 걸렸다.]
21-4-101
Political folly increases in a geometrical ratio
As so often, governments are making matters worse. Food-export bans are proliferating. Although these may produce temporary relief for any one country, the more they spread the tighter global markets become. Another wrongheaded policy has been America's subsidy to domestic ethanol production in a bid to reduce dependence on imported oil. This misconceived attempt to grow more fuel rather than to curb demand is expected to gobble up a third of this year's maize (corn) crop.
Although neo-Malthusianism naturally has much to say about food scarcity, the doctrine emerges more generally as the idea of absolute limits on resources and energy, such as the notion of 'peak oil'. Following the earlier scares of the 1970s, oil companies defied the pessimists by finding extra fields, not least since higher prices had spurred new exploration. But even if oil wells were to run dry, economies can still adapt by finding and exploiting other energy sources.
A new form of Malthusian limit has more recently emerged through the need to constrain greenhouse-gas emissions in order to tackle global warming. But this too can be overcome by shifting to a low-carbon economy. As with agriculture, the main difficulty in making the necessary adjustment comes from poor policies, such as governments' reluctance to impose a carbon tax. There may be curbs on traditional forms of growth, but there is no limit to human ingenuity. That is why Malthus remains as wrong today as he was two centuries ago.
A. 어휘
folly 어리석음, 愚昧(우매). geometrical rate 기하급수적 비율.
food-export bans 식량수출금지. proliferate 增殖(증식)하다. temporary 일시적인.
relief 안심, 한숨 돌리기, 구원. wrong-headed 생각이 틀린, 완고한. policy 정책.
subsidy 보조금. domestic 국내의. bid 노력, 시도, 입찰. reduce 감소시키다.
dependence 의존. imported oil 수입 석유. misconceive 잘못 생각하다, 허방짚다.
gobble 걸신들린 듯이 먹다. a third 3분지 1. maize 옥수수. scarcity 부족, 결핍.
doctrine 원리. emerge 나타나다. absolute limits 절대한계. notion 개념. scare 겁먹기.
defy 감연히 도전하다, 물리치다. pessimist 비관주의자. fields 油田(유전).
spur 고무하다, 자극하다, 박차를 가하다. not least since 가장 큰 이유는 ...때문에.
exploration 探鑛(탐광). oil wells 油田. adapt 적응하다. exploit 개발하다.
constrain 억제하다. emission 排出(배출). tackle 대결하다. shifting 전환. carbon 탄소.
adjustment 적응, 조정. reluctance 싫음. impose 부과하다. curb 고삐, 속박, 억제.
traditional forms of growth 전통적 형태의 발전. ingenuity 영리함, 발명의 재간.
B. 구문
- the more they spread the tighter . . . markets become.
cf. the+비교급, the+비교급→...을 더 ...하면 할 수록 더 ...하다.
ex. The more, the better. 多多益善(다다익선).
- Although neo-Malthusianism . . . the notion of “peak oil”
[비록 新(신) Malthus주의자들이 식량부족에 대해 할 말이 많겠지만, 그들의 이론은 “peak oil(석유매장량의 한계)” 개념 같이 에너지와 자원의 절대적 한계의 개념으로 나타난다.(석유매장량에 한계가 있듯이 모든 자원에는 한계가 있으므로 인구의 증가는 재앙이 될 것이라는 것).]
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