94-3-443
For this reason, you can bet that if the regimes have their way, Arabs will not get the chance. Arab rulers hold on to power through a cynical combination of coercion, intimidation and co-option. From time to time they let hollow parties fight bogus elections, which then return them to power. Where genuine opposition exists it tends to be fatally split between Islamist movements on one hand and, on the other, secular parties that fear the Islamists more than they dislike the regimes themselves. Most of the small cosmetic reforms Arab leaders enacted when Mr Bush was pushing his 'freedom agenda' on unwilling allies have since been rolled back. If anything, sad to say, the cause of democracy became tainted by association with a president most Arabs despised for invading Iraq.

The illusion of permanence
Can regimes that are failing their people so clearly really hold sway over some 350m people indefinitely? Hosni Mubarak has been Egypt's president for 28 years Muammar Qaddafi has run Libya since 1969. When Hafez Assad died after three decades as president of Syria, power passed smoothly to his son Bashar. After the failure of Mr Bush's efforts to promote democracy, and the debacle in Iraq, Barack Obama has put 'respect' rather than 'freedom' at the centre of America's discourse with the Muslim world. That may be wise: since the advent of Mr Obama, America's standing has risen in Arab eyes, and Mr Bush's zeal for reforming other countries was counterproductive anyway. But this suggests that if the Arabs want democracy, they will have to grab it for themselves.

A. 어휘
you can bet 틀림없이 그렇다. cf. bet 내기를 하다. regime 政權(정권).
have their way 그들 생각대로 해치우다. hold on to power 권력을 유지하다.
cynical 냉소적인. coercion 强壓(강압), 강제. intimidation 위협.
co-option 互選(호선). hollow 힘없는, 거짓의, 속이 텅 빈.
hollow parties 힘이 없는 정당. bogus 가짜의, 위조의. genuine 眞性(진성)의, 진짜의.
opposition 야당. fatally 치명적으로. split-split-split 분열되다, 분열된.
regime 政權(정권). secular 비종교적인, 세속의, 이세상의.
cosmetic 장식적인, 화장품. reform 개혁. enact 행하다, 법률화하다.
agenda 議題(의제), 협의사항. allies 동맹국들.
If anything 어느 편이냐 하면(rather), 오히려.
cause 사회적인 운동, 大義名分(대의명분). sad to say 말을 하기에는 슬프지만.
taint 오염시키다, 얼룩. association 聯想(연상), 관련. despise 몹시 싫어하다, 깔보다.
The illusion of permanence 영속 불변에 대한 환상.
hold sway over ...을 지배하다. indefinitely 무한히. power 권력.
debacle 패퇴, 瓦解(와해), 대홍수. discourse 談話(담화).
advent 등장, 출현, 到來(도래). zeal 열성. counterproductive 비생산적.
grab 잡아채다, 움켜쥐다. for themselves 스스로의 힘으로.

B. 구문
-Where genuine opposition exists it tends. . . dislike the regimes themselves.
[진짜 반대세력이 있는 나라에서는 정권에 반대하는 야당세력은 한 쪽의 이슬람 운동권과 정권자체를 싫어하는 것보다도 이슬람주의자들을 더 두려워하는 다른 쪽의 비종교적 정당간에 치명적으로 분열되는 경향이 있다.]

94-4-444
Some in the West are wary of Arab elections, fearing that Islamists would exploit the chance to seize power on the principle of 'one man, one vote, one time'. Yet Islamists seem to struggle to raise their support much above 20% of the electorate. Non-Arab Muslim countries like Turkey and Indonesia suggest that democracy is the best way to draw the poison of extremism. Repression only makes it more dangerous.
Democracy is more than just elections. It is about education, tolerance and building independent institutions such as a judiciary and a free press. The hard question is how much ordinary Arabs want all this. There have been precious few Tehran-style protests on the streets of Cairo. Most Arabs still seem unwilling to pay the price of change. Or perhaps, observing Iraq, they prefer stagnation to the chaos that change might bring. But regimes would be unwise to count on permanent passivity. As our special report in this issue argues, behind the political stagnation of the Arab world a great social upheaval is under way, with far-reaching consequences.
In almost every Arab country, fertility is in decline, more people, especially women, are becoming educated, and businessmen want a bigger say in economies dominated by the state. Above all, a revolution in satellite television has broken the spell of the state-run media and created a public that wants the rulers to explain and justify themselves as never before. On their own, none of these changes seems big enough to prompt a revolution. But taken together they are creating a great agitation under the surface. The old pattern of Arab governmentcorrupt, opaque and authoritarianhas failed on every level and does not deserve to survive. At some point it will almost certainly collapse. The great unknown is when.

A. 어휘
wary of 신중한, 경계하는. exploit 유리하도록 이용하다.
seize power 권력을 잡다. electorate 유권자. draw 독을 빨아내다.
poison 毒(독). extremism 극단주의. repression 억압. tolerance 관용.
institution 기관. judiciary 司法府(사법부). free press 언론자유.
precious 귀중한, 값비싼. stagnation 停滯(정체), 현상유지. chaos 혼란, 혼돈.
count on 의존하다. permanent 영구적인, 영원한. passivity 소극적임, 피동적인 것.
this issue 신문(The Economist)의 이번 號(호). upheaval 대 변동, 격동.
is under way 일어나고 있다. far-reaching 광범위한. consequences 결과.
fertility 출산율. say 발언권. revolution 혁명. satellite television 위성방송.
spell 魔力(마력), 呪術(주술). the state-run media 國營(국영) 매체.
justify 정당화하다. as never before 以前(이전)과 아주 다르게.
On their own 自力(자력)으로는, 독립적으로는. prompt 촉진하다.
agitation 격동, 흥분, 動搖(동요). corrupt 부패한. opaque 불투명한.
authoritarian 독재적인, 권위주의적인. deserve ...할만한 가치가 있다.
collapse 붕괴하다. unknown 未知數(미지수).