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What about the argument that autocracy creates a modicum of stability without which growth is impossible? In fact, it is not evident that authoritarian countries are more stable than democracies. Quite the contrary. Although democratic politicians spend a lot of time vacillating, arguing and being loud and disagreeable, this can reinforce stability in the medium term it allows the interests and viewpoints of more people to be heard before action is taken. On the State Fragility Index, which is produced annually by George Mason University and studies variables such as "political effectivenes" and security, democracies tend to do much better than autocracies. Tito's Yugoslavia was stable, as was Saddam Hussein's Iraq-but once the straitjacket that held their systems together came off, the result was a release of pent-up pressure, and a golden opportunity for demagogues bent on mayhem.
At the very least, a culture of compromise-coupled with greater accountability and limits on state power-means that democracies are better able to avoid catastrophic mistakes, or criminal cruelty. Bloody nightmares that cost tens of millions of lives, like China's Great Leap Forward or the Soviet Union's forced collectivisation programme, were made possible by the concentration of power in a small group of people who faced no restraint.
Worth fighting for-Liberal democratic governments can make all manner of blunders, but they are less likely to commit mass murder. Amartya Sen, a Nobel prize-winning economist, has famously argued that no country with a free press and fair elections has ever had a large famine. And research by those three CFR scholars found that poor autocracies were at least twice as likely as democracies to suffer an economic disaster (defined as a decline of 10% or more in GDP in a year). With no noisy legislatures or robust courts to hold things up, autocracies may be faster and bolder. They are also more accident-prone.
A. ¾îÈÖ
autocracy µ¶ÀçÁ¤Ä¡. modicum ¼Ò·®, ¼Ò¾×. vacillate µ¿¿äÇÏ´Ù, Èçµé¸®´Ù.
disagreeable ºÒÄèÇÑ, ½ÈÀº. reinforce °ÈÇÏ´Ù, Áõ´ë½ÃŰ´Ù.
fragility ±úÁö±â ½¬¿ò, Çã¾à. State Fragility Index ¡´±¹°¡ Çã¾à Áö¼ö¡µ
variables ܨâ¦(º¯¼ö), ܨú£(º¯Ç×). annually ¸Å³â.
effectiveness È¿À². security ¾ÈÀü, äÌÜÁ(¾Èº¸). autocracies µ¶Àç±¹°¡.
straitjacket ϬáÖÕô(±¸¼Ó·Â), ±¸¼Óº¹. come off ³¡³ª´Ù.
release ¹æÃâ. pent-up ¾ï´·Á ÀÖ´Â, °¤Èù, ¾ï¾Ð´çÇÑ.
demagogue ¼±µ¿°¡, ¼±µ¿Á¤Ä¡°¡. bend on ½ò¸®´Ù.
mayhem ß¿úª(»óÇØ), Áö³ªÄ£ ºñ³. compromise ŸÇù.
couple with °áÇÕÇÏ´Ù. accountability Ã¥ÀÓ.
catastrophic ÆÄ¸êÀûÀÎ, ÓÞì¶Ü¨(´ëÀ̺¯)ÀÇ. cruelty ÀÜÀÎ.
bloody ÇǺñ¸°³» ³ª´Â, ¹«ÀÚºñÇÑ, íÑäÂ(ÀܾÇ)ÇÑ.
nightmare ¾Ç¸ù, ¹«¼¿î »óÅÂ. collectivisation Áý´ÜÈ.
restraint ¾ïÁ¦, ±¸¼Ó, ÀÚÁ¦. blunder Å« ½Ç¼ö, Å« ½ÇÆÐ.
famine ÑÇÐÏ(±â±Ù). legislature ÀÔ¹ýºÎ, ÀÔ¹ý±â°ü.
robust ưưÇÑ, °Ç°ÇÑ.
B. ÓÞëù(´ëÀÇ)
µ¶Àç´Â ¼ºÀå¿¡ ÇʼöÀûÀÎ ¾î´À Á¤µµÀÇ ¾ÈÁ¤À» âÁ¶ÇÑ´Ù´Â ÁÖÀåÀº ¾î¶²°¡? »ç½Ç, µ¶Àç±¹°¡°¡ ¹ÎÁÖ±¹°¡º¸´Ù ´õ ¾ÈÁ¤µÇ¾î ÀÖ´Ù´Â Áõ°Å´Â ¾ø´Ù. ¿ÀÈ÷·Á Á¤¹Ý´ëÀÌ´Ù. ºñ·Ï ¹ÎÁÖÀû Á¤Ä¡°¡´Â ¸¶À½ÀÌ Èçµé¸®°í ÀǰßÀ» ÁÖÀåÇϸç Å« ¼Ò¸®¸¦ ³»°í ¹Ì¿òÀ» ¹Þ´À¶ó°í ¸¹Àº ½Ã°£À» º¸³»Áö¸¸ À̰ÍÀº ÀϹÝÀû Àǹ̿¡¼ »çȸÀÇ ¾ÈÁ¤À» °È½ÃŲ´Ù. À̰ÍÀº ¾î¶² ÇൿÀÌ ÃëÇØÁö±â Àü¿¡ º¸´Ù ¸¹Àº »ç¶÷µéÀÇ ÀÌÀͰú °ßÇØÀÇ ¼Ò¸®°¡ µé¸®µµ·Ï Çϱ⠶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù. George Mason´ëÇÐÀÌ ¸Å³â ÀÛ¼ºÇÏ¿© ¹ßÇ¥Çϰí, ¡°Á¤Ä¡Àû È¿À²¡±°ú »çȸ ¾ÈÀü °°Àº º¯¼ö¸¦ ¿¬±¸ÇÏ´Â State Fragility Index¿¡ ÀÇÇϸé, ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ ±¹°¡°¡ µ¶Àç±¹°¡ º¸´Ù ÈξÀ ´õ ÀßÇÏ´Â °æÇâÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. TitoÀÇ Yugoslavia´Â HusseinÀÇ Iraqó·³ ¾ÈÁ¤µÇ¾î ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. ±×·¯³ª »çȸ¸¦ °á¼Ó½Ã۰í ÀÖ´ø ¾ï¾ÐÀû ±¸¼Ó·ÂÀÌ ÀÏ´Ü »ç¶óÁö¸é, ±× °á°ú´Â °¤ÇôÀÖ´ø ¾Ð·ÂÀÇ ºÐÃâÀ̰í ÇØ¾ÇÀ» ³¢Ä¡´Â ¼±µ¿Á¤Ä¡°¡µé¿¡°Ô Ȳ±ÝÀÇ ±âȸ¸¦ Á¦°øÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
ÃÖ¼ÒÇѵµ·Î, ŸÇùÀÇ ¹®È´Â-±¹°¡±Ç·ÂÀÇ Á¦ÇÑ ¹× Ã¥ÀÓ°ú °áÇÕÇØ¼-¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀDZ¹°¡µéÀÌ ÆÄ¸êÀûÀÎ è¦×½(¿À·ù)³ª ¹üÁËÀû ÀÜÀÎÇÔÀ» ´õ Àß ÇÇÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ÀǹÌÇÑ´Ù. Áß±¹ÀÇ ´ë¾àÁø ¿îµ¿À̳ª ¼Ò·ÃÀÇ Áý´ÜÈ °èȹ °°ÀÌ ¼ö õ¸¸ ¸íÀÇ ¸ñ¼ûÀ» »©¾Ñ¾Æ°£ ¹«ÀÚºñÇÑ ¸¸Çà(¾Ç¸ù)Àº ¾ïÁ¦¸¦ ¹ÞÁö ¾Ê´Â ±Ç·ÂÀÌ ¼Ò¼öÀÇ »ç¶÷¿¡°Ô ÁýÁß µÉ ¶§ °¡´ÉÇÏ¿´¾ú´Ù.
ÀÚÀ¯¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇÀû °¡Ä¡¸¦ À§ÇØ ½Î¿ì´Â Á¤ºÎ´Â ¸ðµç Á¾·ùÀÇ Å« ½Ç¼ö¸¦ ÀúÁö¸¦ ¼ö´Â ÀÖÁö¸¸ ´ë·®ÇлìÀ» í°ú¼(ÀÚÇà)ÇÏ´Â ÀÏÀº µå¹°´Ù. Nobel»ó ¼ö»ó °æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚÀÎ Amartya Sen´Â ¾ð·ÐÀÇ ÀÚÀ¯¿Í °øÁ¤¼±°Å°¡ ÀÖ´Â ³ª¶ó´Â ´ë·® ÑÇä»(±â¾Æ)´Â °áÄÚ ¾ø´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇÏ¿´´Ù. 3¸íÀÇ CFR ÇÐÀÚÀÇ ¿¬±¸¿¡ ÀÇÇÏ¸é °¡³ÇÑ µ¶À籸°¡´Â ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ ±¹°¡ º¸´Ù Àû¾îµµ µÎ ¹è³ª ´õ °æÁ¦Àû Àç³-1³â¿¡ GDP°¡ 10%°¡ °¨¼ÒÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î Á¤ÀǵǴÂ-À» ´çÇϱ⠽±´Ù. Á¤ºÎÀÇ ÇൿÀ» ¾ïÁ¦½ÃÄÑÁÙ ½Ã²ô·¯¿î ±¹È¸³ª °ÇÀüÇÑ ¹ýÁ¤ÀÌ ¾ø±â ¶§¹®¿¡ µ¶Àç±¹°¡´Â Çൿ¿¡ ÀÖ¾î¼ ´õ ºü¸£°í ´õ ´ë´ãÇØ Áø´Ù. µ¶Àç±¹°¡´Â ¶ÇÇÑ »ç°í¸¦ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ ³»±â ½±´Ù.
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