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¡°IF SOMETHING cannot go on for ever, it will stop,¡± Herb Stein once observed caustically. The American economist¡¯s aphorism has proved apt of late—as applicable to Hosni Mubarak¡¯s regime as it was to America¡¯s rising property prices. Could it apply to the growth of the state?
Government comes in many shapes and sizes. In some parts of the world, the state is too small. In Guatemala, where the tax take is around a tenth of GDP, private security guards are five times more numerous than the police and army combined. But most of the world has the opposite problem. The state has kept on grabbing an ever larger share of the economy in the rich world for a century (see chart), and the state¡¯s regulatory sweep has increased as well.
As our special report this week concludes, the forces driving this growth are powerful—but so are the reasons why it needs to be halted. As a liberal paper, The Economist has long favoured a smaller state but there are pragmatic grounds now for politicians of all sorts to make the state more productive. With ageing populations to care for, many rich-world governments are on course for bankruptcy—unless they raise taxes to levels that would wreck their economies. And emerging markets are watching, keen to cater to the demands of their ever richer citizens—and also to avoid the mistakes of the West.
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