°íÁ¶µÇ´Â ºÏÇÑ ÇÙ¡¤ICBM ½ÇÇè Àç°³ °¡´É¼º¡¦¹Ì Àü¹®°¡µé Àü¸Á ¾ù°¥·Á
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ºÏÇÑÀÌ ¡®¿¬¸» ½ÃÇÑ¡¯À» Á¦½ÃÇÏ°í ¡®»õ·Î¿î ±æ¡¯À» °Åµì ¾ð±ÞÇÑ °¡¿îµ¥, ¿ö½ÌÅÏ¿¡¼´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ µµ¹ß ¼öÀ§°¡ °è¼Ó ³ô¾ÆÁú °ÍÀ̶ó´Â Àü¸Á¿¡ ¹«°Ô°¡ ½Ç¸®°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ÁߴܰŸ® ¹Ì»çÀÏ Ãß°¡ ¹ß»ç·Î ±äÀåÀ» ²ø¾î¿Ã¸®´Ù ¿øÇÏ´Â ¹Ù¸¦ ¾òÁö ¸øÇÏ¸é °á±¹ ÇÙ½ÇÇè°ú Àå°Å¸®¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹ß»ç ¼ö¼øÀ¸·Î À̾îÁú °ÍÀ̶ó´Â Àü¸ÁÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ´ë³»¿ÜÀû ¿äÀÎ ¶§¹®¿¡ Àú°µµ µµ¹ß ¼öÀ§¸¦ ³ÑÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó´Â Á¶½É½º·¯¿î °üÃøµµ ³ª¿Ô½À´Ï´Ù. ¹é¼º¿ø ±âÀÚ°¡ ÃëÀçÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÇ À§ÇùÀ» ÃÖÀü¼±¿¡¼ °ÞÀº 4¼ºÀ屺 Ãâ½Å Àü ÁÖÇѹ̱º»ç·É°üµéÀº ÀûÀÇ ¼±ÅÃÀ» °ø°³ ¿¹ÃøÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â ´ëÇ¥ÀûÀÎ ½ÅÁß·ÐÀÚµéÀÔ´Ï´Ù. Á¦ÀÓ½º ¼¸Õ Àü ÁÖÇѹ̱º»ç·É°üÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ½ÇÇè°ú ´ë·ú°£Åºµµ¹Ì»çÀÏ(ICBM) ¹ß»ç Àç°³ °¡´É¼º°ú °ü·ÃÇØ ¡°ÃßÃøÇÏ°í ½ÍÁö ¾Ê°í, ¹«¾ùÀÌµç °¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù¡±´Â ÀÔÀåÀÌ°í, Á¸ Æ¿·²¸® Àü ÁÖÇѹ̱º»ç·É°ü ¿ª½Ã ¡°±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ¹«¾ùÀ» ÇÒ °ÍÀÎÁö ÆÇ´ÜÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ¾ðÁ¦³ª ¾î·Æ´Ù¡±¸ç Àü¸ÁÀ» À¯º¸Çß½À´Ï´Ù. [Á¦ÀÓ½º ¼¸Õ Àü ÁÖÇѹ̱º»ç·É°ü / Á¸ Æ¿·²¸® Àü ÁÖÇѹ̱º»ç·É°ü] ¡°I do not want to speculate on this. Anything is possible¡± / ¡°It is always difficult to determine what KJU will do.¡± ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¾î¶² Àü·«°ú ¿òÁ÷ÀÓ¿¡µµ ´ëÀÀÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Áغñ ż¼ È®ÃæÀÌ ÈξÀ Áß¿äÇÏ´Ù´Â Çö¿ª ½ÃÀýÀÇ ¿ì¼± ¼øÀ§¿¡¼ ´Þ¶óÁø °Ô ¾ø½À´Ï´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ µÎ Àü ÁÖÇѹ̱º»ç·É°üÀ» Æ÷ÇÔÇÑ 13¸íÀÇ Çѹݵµ Àü¹®°¡µé °¡¿îµ¥ 6¸íÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ Ãß°¡ µµ¹ßÀ» °ÅÀÇ ±âÁ¤»ç½ÇÈÇÏ¸é¼ °á±¹ ¼±À» ³ÑÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ³»´ÙºÃ½À´Ï´Ù. Àç·¡½Ä ¹«±â ½ÇÇè°ú °°Àº Àú°µµ ¼öÀ§¿¡ ¸Ó¹° °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¿¹ÃøÇÑ Àü¹®°¡´Â 4¸í¿¡ ±×ÃƽÀ´Ï´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÌ ·¹µå¶óÀÎÀ¸·Î ÀÎ½ÄµÈ ÇÙ½ÇÇè°ú ICBM ¹ß»ç¿¡ Á¡Á¡ ´Ù°¡°¡°í ÀÖÀ½À» ¿ì·ÁÇÏ´Â ¸ñ¼Ò¸®°¡ ¿ö½ÌÅÏ¿¡¼ È®´ëµÇ°í ÀÖÀ½À» º¸¿©ÁÝ´Ï´Ù. ºê·ç½º º¤Åç Åػ罺 ¾ØÁ©·Î ÁÖ¸³´ë ±³¼ö´Â ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ Á¦½ÃÇÑ ¡®¿¬¸»½ÃÇÑ¡¯Àº ¸ðµÎ Á¦Àç ÇØÁ¦¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °ÍÀÌ°í Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ´Â ÀÀÇÒ °èȹÀÌ ÀüÇô ¾ø´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î ¾È´Ù¸ç, ÀÌ ¹®Á¦¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ´ëÈ°¡ ¾øÀ¸¸é ÇÙ°ú Àå°Å¸®¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÇÇè°ú °°Àº ´ë±Ô¸ð º¶û³¡ Àü¼úÀ» º¸¿©ÁÙ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â °Ô ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¸Þ½ÃÁö¶ó°í Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù. [ºê·ç½º º¤Åç Åػ罺 ¾ØÁ©·Î ÁÖ¸³´ë ±³¼ö] ¡°That's what they mean when they say they want us to show good faith blah blah blah. It's all about the sanctions, and I just don't think that's going to happen. So, if there are no talks, and before the next set of talks Trump is supposed to have with Kim Jong Un they do something that is seen by the United States and the world as a big time brinksmanship move such as testing a nuclear weapon or a long range missile.¡± °ú°ÅÀÇ µµ¹ß ¾ç»óÀÌ ÀçÇöµÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸´Â Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ̶ó´Â ÃÖ´ëÀÇ Æи¦ ±ÞÈ÷ ³»³õ±âº¸´Ù´Â ½ÇÇèÇÏ´Â ¹«±âÀÇ Á¾·ù¿Í À§·ÂÀ» ¼¼È÷ ²ø¾î¿Ã¸± °ÍÀ̶ó´Â µ¥ ÀÇ°ßÀ» °°ÀÌ Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ºê·ç½º Ŭ¸µ³Ê Ç츮ƼÁöÀç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ Á߰Ÿ®¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹ß»ç, ÇÙ½ÇÇè ȤÀº ICBM ¹ß»ç µîÀ¸·Î µµ¹ß °µµ¸¦ ³ôÀÏ °ÍÀÌ°í, ´Ù°¡¿À´Â °Ü¿ï ÈÆ·Ã ±â°£ Áß ¼ÇغϹæÇÑ°è¼± ȤÀº ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë¿¡¼ Àç·¡½Ä¹«±â¸¦ ÀÌ¿ëÇÑ Ãß°¡ ±º»ç µµ¹ßÀ» ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. [ºê·ç½º Ŭ¸µ³Ê Ç츮ƼÁöÀç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°Pyongyang is likely to increase its provocative actions, potentially launching medium- and intermediate-range missiles or crossing Trump's red line by conducting a nuclear or ICBM test. The regime could also do conventional military actions such as additional military actions near the NLL or DMX during its upcoming annual Winter Training Cycle.¡± ºê·ç½º º£³Ý ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ Á¦½ÃÇÑ ¡®¿¬¸» ½ÃÇÑ¡¯À» ½ÇÀçÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î ¹Þ¾ÆµéÀÎ´Ù¸ç ¡®»õ·Î¿î ±æ¡¯Àº »ó´çÇÑ ¼öÀ§ÀÇ ±äÀå °íÁ¶¿Í °ü°è°¡ ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù. [ºê·ç½º º£³Ý ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think the year-end deadline is real and the ¡°new path¡± will involve significant North Korean escalations over time.¡± ±×·¯¸é¼ ºÏÇÑÀÌ ³»³â ÃÊ ICBMÀ» °ð¹Ù·Î ½î¾Æ ¿Ã¸®´Â ´ë½Å ½ÅÇü Àá¼öÇԹ߻çźµµ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ÀϺ» »ó°øÀ¸·Î ¹ß»çÇÏ´Â ½ÄÀ¸·Î õõÈ÷ ±äÀåÀ» ³ôÀÎ µÚ ³»³â ¸»°æ ICBM ¹ß»ç³ª ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ¸·Î Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀ» ¾Ð¹ÚÇÏ°íÀÚ ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. [ºê·ç½º º£³Ý ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I don¡¯t think North Korea will jump immediately to testing ICBMs early next year, though it could. Instead, I expect North Korea to launch some of the new submarine launched ballistic missiles early in 2020, and likely to fly one or more of them over Japan-a slow pattern of escalation designed to allow the North to step back should the United States finally decide that enough is enough. But by the middle of 2020, North Korea may well decide that it can escalate to another ICBM test or even a nuclear weapon test, hoping the extra pressure on President Trump will cause Trump to surrender and give in to North Korean demands.¡± ·Î¹öÆ® ¸Å´× ¾ÖƲ·£Æ½Ä«¿î½½ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÀÌ·± ½Ãµµ¿¡´Â ¡®µµ¹ß¡¯ ¸ñÀû¸¸ ÀÖ´Â °Ô ¾Æ´Ï¶ó Àç·¡½Ä¹«±â¿Í ÇÙ¹«±â ¿ª·®À» °ø°ÝÀûÀÎ ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Î °³¼±½ÃÅ°·Á´Â °Ô ÁÖ¸ñÀûÀ̶ó¸ç, ºÏÇÑÀÌ Á¤µµ¸¦ ³ô¿© ICBM°ú ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ ½ÇÇèÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ Å« °ÍÀº ÀÌ ¶§¹®À̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. [·Î¹öÆ® ¸Å´× ¾ÖƲ·£Æ½Ä«¿î½½ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°We shouldn¡¯t think about them as a ¡®provocation,¡¯ that¡¯s not the main purpose, which is to aggressively improve their conventional and nuclear arms. That is why they are likely to raise the ante, and test ICBMs and nuclear weapons.¡± ºÏÇÑÀÌ ICMBÀ» ¹ß»çÇϸé¼, µµ¹ßÀ» ±Ø´ëÈÇÏ´Â µ¥ µû¸£´Â À§ÇèÀ» ÁÙÀ̱â À§ÇØ ½º½º·Î ¾ÈÀü ÀåÄ¡¸¦ µÑ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â Àü¸Áµµ ³ª¿Ô½À´Ï´Ù. ½ºÆ¼ºì ³ëÆÛ ÄÚ¸®¾Æ ¼Ò»çÀ̾îƼ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº »õÇØ¿¡ ºÏÇÑÀÇ À§¼º ¹ß»ç¸¦ º¸°Ô µÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¸ç, ´Ù¸¸ ºÏÇÑ»Ó ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ¹Ì±¹, Çѱ¹, ·¯½Ã¾Æ, Áß±¹ ¸ðµÎ ±äÀå °íÁ¶¸¦ ÃÖ¼ÒÈÇϱâ À§ÇØ À̸¦ ¿ìÁÖ °³¹ß¿ëÀ̶ó°í ÇظíÇÏ·Á ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. [½ºÆ¼ºì ³ëÆÛ ÄÚ¸®¾Æ ¼Ò»çÀ̾îƼ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°Expect a satellite launch or similar in the new year. Be prepared, but realize that it might be explained away by Pyongyang, Washington, Seoul, Moscow and Beijing as use of outer space to minimize a return to high tensions.¡± ¹Ý¸é 13¸íÀÇ Àü¹®°¡ °¡¿îµ¥ 4¸íÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ ±Ø´ÜÀûÀÎ ¼±ÅÃÀ» ÅëÇØ ¾òÀ» ½ÇÀÍÀÌ Àû°í Àü·«Àû ÇÑ°è ¶ÇÇÑ Å©´Ù¸ç ÇÙ°ú ICBM ½ÇÇèÀ» ÇÏ´Â ´Ü°è±îÁö´Â ³ª¾Æ°¡Áö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹ÃøÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ¸¶ÀÌŬ ¿ÀÇÚ·Ð ºê·çÅ·½º¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ¾ÕÀ¸·Îµµ ÇöÀçÀÇ ±³Âø »óÅ¿¡ µ¹Æı¸°¡ ¸¶·ÃµÇÁö ¾ÊÀ» °æ¿ì ºÏÇÑÀº Á¡ÁøÀûÀ¸·Î ±äÀåÀ» °íÁ¶½Ãų °ÍÀ̶ó°í Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. µµÄì¿Ã¸²ÇÈ°ú ¹Ì ´ëÅë·É ¼±°Å°¡ ´Ù°¡¿À¸é¼ (ÀüÀï À§±â°¡ °íÁ¶µÆ´ø) 2017³â »óȲÀÌ ÀçÇöµÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â ºÒ¾È°¨À» Á¶¼ºÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¼³¸íÀÔ´Ï´Ù. [¸¶ÀÌŬ ¿ÀÇÚ·Ð ºê·çÅ·½º¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I believe North Korea will gradually escalate if there is no breakthrough in the coming next few weeks or next couple of months, or maybe even into 2020. Because they know there will be the Olympics coming up and the presidential election in the United States, they have the potential to make people feel very worried that you know we're going back to 2017.¡± ÇÏÁö¸¸ ºÏÇÑÀº ³»³â ´ë¼±¿¡¼ Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ ÀÔÁö¸¦ ±ØÀûÀ¸·Î ¾àȽÃÅ°Áö ¾Ê±â À§ÇØ ¸Å¿ì Á¡ÁøÀûÀ¸·Î µµ¹ß °µµ¸¦ ³ô¿©°¥ °ÍÀ̶ó¸ç, ´çºÐ°£Àº ƯÁ¤ ´Ü°Å¸® Àü¼ú ¹«±â¸¦ °³¼±½ÃÅ°°í ½ÇÇèÇÏ´Â ¼öÁØÀ» À¯ÁöÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í Àü¸ÁÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ¿ÀÇÚ·Ð ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ½Ã°£ÀÌ Áö³ªµµ Çù»ó¿¡ µ¿·ÂÀÌ ºÙÁö ¾ÊÀ» °æ¿ì ºÏÇÑÀº Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ ÁÖÀǸ¦ ²ø±â À§ÇØ ÇÙ½ÇÇè À§ÇùÀ» ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÁö¸¸, ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ Á¤Ä¡ÀÎµé °¡¿îµ¥ ´©±¸º¸´Ùµµ ¼±È£ÇÏ´Â Æ®·³ÇÁ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÇ À§½ÅÀ» ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ ¶³¾î¶ß¸®Áö´Â ¾Ê±â À§ÇØ ³»³â 11¿ù ¹Ì ´ë¼± ¶§±îÁö´Â À̸¦ ½ÇÇà¿¡ ¿Å±âÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í ³»´ÙºÃ½À´Ï´Ù. [¸¶ÀÌŬ ¿ÀÇÚ·Ð ºê·çÅ·½º¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think that North Korea probably doesn't really want to hurt Trump because Kim Jong Un probably prefers Trump to anybody else in the American political system. So he probably doesn't want to go so far as to actually do all those tests before next November, because that could pretty grave resentment by Trump and really destroy what's left of their relationship, but I think he may want to try to make Trump worried that he's headed in the direction of invalidating Trump's main campaign claim¡¦¡± ÄËÆ® Ä®´õ Á¸½ºÈ©Å²½º ±¹Á¦°ü°è´ëÇпø µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼ÒÀåÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ ¹Ì±¹°úÀÇ ¸ðµç ´ëÈ ³¡¿¡ ´Ù½Ã Àå°Å¸®¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ¹ß»çÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº »ó´çÈ÷ Ä¿´Ù¶õ Á¶Ä¡¶ó¸ç, ºÏÇÑÀÌ ¹«¾ùÀ» ¾òÀ» ¼ö ÀÖÀ»Áö Àǹ®ÀÌ°í, ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ½É°¢ÇÑ ´ëÀÀ¿¡ Á÷¸éÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ¹Ì ´ë¼± ±â°£¿¡ Èֹ߼ºÀ» ´õÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¸ç ¿ª½Ã ȸÀÇÀûÀÎ ÀÔÀåÀ» ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù. [ÄËÆ® Ä®´õ Á¸½ºÈ©Å²½º ±¹Á¦°ü°è´ëÇпø µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼ÒÀå] ¡°It would be a big step for the North to begin testing long-range missiles again, after all the discussions with the US. I don't see what they would gain, and that could provoke a serious response from the US, and in an election year, which would compound the volatility. I think more likely would be some incremental escalation, such as more short-range missile testing. I don't think the North really has a lot of options or leverage, other than quiet missile development, which they are likely doing, and which raises serious long-term issues.¡± µû¶ó¼ ºÏÇÑÀº Á¶¿ëÈ÷ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» °³¹ßÇÏ´Â °Í ¿Ü¿¡ ¸¹Àº ¿É¼ÇÀ̳ª Áö·¿´ë¸¦ °®°í ÀÖÁö ¾ÊÀ¸¸ç, ÀÌ ¶ÇÇÑ Àå±âÀûÀ¸·Î´Â ½É°¢ÇÑ ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÀÏÀ¸Å³ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¼³¸íÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀÌ µµ¹ßÀ» ±Ø´ëÈÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÇÑ°è·Î ²ÅÈù ´ëÇ¥ÀûÀÎ ´ë¿ÜÀû ¿äÀÎÀº Áß±¹ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. Á¦ÀÓ½º Ä̸® Àü ±¹¹«ºÎ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÅÂÆò¾ç ´ã´ç Â÷°üº¸´Â Áß±¹°úÀÇ °ü°è¿Í Áß±¹¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÇÁ¸µµ¸¦ °í·ÁÇÒ ¶§ ºÏÇÑÀÌ 2017³â°ú °°Àº ¹«±â ½ÇÇèÀ¸·Î µ¹¾Æ°¡±â´Â ¾î·Á¿ï °ÍÀ̶ó°í ³»´ÙºÃ½À´Ï´Ù. [Á¦ÀÓ½º Ä̸® Àü ±¹¹«ºÎ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÅÂÆò¾ç ´ã´ç Â÷°üº¸] ¡°DPRK's relationship with China and its dependence on China, makes a full return to 2017 weapons tests unlikely. That dependence is, of course, hated by PY, but it is real including sanctions enforcement (or lack thereof), food, fuel, and money. China can cause pain in PY by even small adjustments unlikely to be seen by outsiders.¡± ºÏÇÑÀÌ ´ëÁß ÀÇÁ¸ °ü°è¿¡ °ÅºÎ°¨À» °®´Â´Ù Çصµ Á¦Àç, ½Ä·®, ¿¬·á, Àڱݰú °ü·ÃÇØ À̸¦ ºÎÀÎÇÒ ¼ö ¾øÀ¸¸ç, Áß±¹Àº ¿ÜºÎ¿¡¼± º¸ÀÌÁö ¾Ê´Â ÀÛÀº Á¶Ä¡·Îµµ ºÏÇÑ Á¤±Ç¿¡ °íÅëÀ» ¾È°ÜÁÙ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¼³¸íÀÔ´Ï´Ù. µ¥À̺ñµå ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¹Ì±¹ ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǼöÈ£Àç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº º¸´Ù ³»ºÎÀû ¿äÀÎÀ» ÀÌÀ¯·Î µé¸ç, ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ÇÙ°ú ICBM ½ÇÇèÀ¸·Î µ¹¾Æ°¥ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â °Ô ÀϹÝÀû Åë³äÀÌÁö¸¸, ¼ÒÀ§ '¾çº¸'¸¦ ÅëÇØ Á¦Àç ¿ÏÈ ³íÀÇÀÇ ÀåÀ¸·Î µ¹¾Æ°¡±â À§ÇØ ±×·± µµ¹ßÀ» »ï°¥ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ºÐ¼®Çß½À´Ï´Ù. [µ¥À̺ñµå ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¹Ì±¹ ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǼöÈ£Àç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°Although the conventional wisdom is that Kim will have to return to testing of ICBMs and maybe nuclear weapons he may also refrain from doing so a his own "concession" in order to return to talks to get sanctions relief. Although it is counterintuitive, Kim is masterful at getting something for nothing and he could "give up" a future provocation that is not conducted and argue that he has actually given up something substantive because the ROK and US desperately want to avoid a return to "fire and fury.¡± ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ¾î¶² °ÍÀ» °øÂ¥·Î ¾ò´Â µ¥ ´ÉÇÏ´Ù¸ç, ¾ÆÁ÷ ½ÇÇà¿¡ ¿Å±âÁö ¾ÊÀº ¹Ì·¡ÀÇ µµ¹ßÀ» 'Æ÷±â'ÇÏ¸é¼ ¡®È¿°°ú ºÐ³ë¡¯¸¦ ÇÇÇÏ°í ½Í¾îÇÏ´Â Çѱ¹°ú ¹Ì±¹¿¡°Ô ½ÇÁ¦·Î ¹«¾ùÀΰ¡¸¦ Æ÷±âÇÏ´Â °Íó·³ ÁÖÀåÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ À§Çù ¼öÀ§¸¦ ÃÖ´ë·Î ²ø¾î¿Ã¸± °æ¿ì Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ °·ÂÇÑ ´ëÀÀ¿¡ Á÷¸éÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í °æ°íÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ÆÐÆ®¸¯ Å©·Î´Ñ Çãµå½¼¿¬±¸¼Ò ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÅÂÆò¾ç ¾Èº¸ ¼®Á´ ºÏÇÑÀÇ À§ÇùÀ» ½É°¢ÇÏ°Ô ¿©±âÁö¸¸, ºÏÇÑÀÌ Ä¡¸íÀû ¹«·ÂÀ» »ç¿ëÇÏ·Á°í ½ÃµµÇÑ´Ù¸é ´©±¸ÀÇ ±º»ç·ÂÀÌ ´õ ¿ìÀ§¿¡ ÀÖ´ÂÁö ±Ý»õ µå·¯³¯ °ÍÀ̶ó°í °Á¶Çß½À´Ï´Ù. [ÆÐÆ®¸¯ Å©·Î´Ñ Çãµå½¼¿¬±¸¼Ò ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÅÂÆò¾ç ¾Èº¸ ¼®ÁÂ] ¡°While I take Pyongyang¡¯s threats seriously, any attempt at using lethal force will quickly reveal which side has the superior firepower.¡± ·Î¹öÆ® ¸Å´× ¾ÖƲ·£Æ½Ä«¿î½½ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øµµ ¾ïÁö·ÂÀº ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ÀÛµ¿ÇÏ°í ±èÁ¤Àºµµ ÀÚ»ì ÇàÀ§¸¦ ÇÏ·Á´Â °Ô ¾Æ´Ñ ¸¸Å, ±×°¡ ´ë·®»ì»ó¹«±â¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ¸é ¹Ì-ºÏ Á¤»ó °£ÀÇ ¡®ºê·Î¸Ç½º(³²¼º °£ Ä£¹ÐÇÑ °ü°è)¡¯¿Í °ü°è¾øÀÌ ¹Ì±¹Àº ¾ÐµµÀû ¹«·ÂÀ¸·Î ´ëÀÀÇØ ºÏÇÑÀ» Æı«ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó´Â »ç½ÇÀ» »ó±â½ÃÄÑ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. VOA ´º½º ¹é¼º¿øÀÔ´Ï´Ù. |
[ 2019-12-05, 03:25 ] | Æ®À§ÅÍ ÆäÀ̽ººÏ ³×À̹ö |
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