VOA´Â, ¹Ì±¹À» À§ÇùÇÏ´Â ºÏÇÑ ICBMº¸´Ù Çѱ¹À» °Ü³ÉÇÏ´Â ´Ü°Å¸® ¹Ì»çÀÏÀÌ ´õ Å« À§ÇùÀ̶ó°í ÁÖÀåÇÏ´Â Àü¹®°¡µéÀÇ °ßÇظ¦ ¼Ò°³ÇÏ¿´´Ù.
=====================================================
¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ °ü½ÉÀÌ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ°ú ´ë·ú°£Åºµµ¹Ì»çÀÏ(ICBM) µµ¹ß ¿©ºÎ¿¡ ÁýÁߵŠÀÖ´Â µ¿¾È Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¾Èº¸°¡ Á¡Á¡ Ãë¾àÇØÁö°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¿ì·Á°¡ È®´ëµÇ°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. Á¤Ä¡Àû ¸ñÀûÀÌ ´ÙºÐÇÏ°í ¿ª·® ÆľÇÀÌ ¾î·Á¿î ÇÙ°ú ICBM À§Çùº¸´Ù ºÏÇÑÀÇ Àç·¡½Ä ¹«±â¿Í ´ë·®»ì»ó¹«±â°¡ °áÇյǴ ÃÖ±Ù Ãß¼¼°¡ Çѱ¹À» À§ÇèÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â Áø´ÜÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¹é¼º¿ø ±âÀÚ°¡ ÃëÀçÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
Æ®·³ÇÁ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ´Â ¹Ì±¹ ¾Èº¸¿Í Á÷°áµÇ´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ°ú Àå°Å¸®¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÃÇèÀ» ¾Ï¹¬ÀûÀÎ ¡®·¹µå¶óÀΡ¯À¸·Î ±ÔÁ¤ÇÏ°í ÀÖÁö¸¸, ¿ö½ÌÅÏ¿¡¼´Â Çѱ¹À» °Ü³ÉÇÑ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ´Ü°Å¸® ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ÈξÀ ½ÇÁúÀûÀÎ À§ÇùÀ¸·Î Æò°¡ÇÏ´Â ¸ñ¼Ò¸®°¡ ¸¹½À´Ï´Ù.
5¿ù ÀÌÈÄ ÁÙ°ð À̾îÁø ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÃÇè ¹ß»ç ¶§¸¶´Ù ¹Ì º»Åä¿¡ À§ÇùÀÌ µÇÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù¸ç Àǹ̸¦ Ãà¼ÒÇØ¿À´Â µ¿¾È ºñ¾àÀûÀÎ ±â¼ú ÁøÀüÀÌ ÀÌ·ïÁ³°í ÀÌ·Î ÀÎÇÑ ±º»çÀû À§ÇèÀº Çѱ¹ÀÌ °í½º¶õÈ÷ ¶°¾È°Ô µÆ´Ù´Â ¿ì·ÁÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
¹®Á¦´Â ¹Ì-ºÏ Çù»ó°ú ÀÌ °úÁ¤À» ´Ü¹ø¿¡ ÈѼսÃų ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ICBM ½ÃÇè¹ß»ç ¿©ºÎ¿¡ °úµµÇÏ°Ô ÁýÁßµÈ °ü½É ¶§¹®¿¡ Çѱ¹ ¾Èº¸¸¦ °è¼Ó Ãë¾àÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µå´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ´Ü°Å¸®¹Ì»çÀÏ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ À§±âÀǽÄÀÌ Á¡Á¡ ¿¶¾îÁö°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â Á¡ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÃÖ±Ù ¹ßÇ¥ÇÑ ¡®Áß´ë ½ÃÇ衯 ¿ª½Ã ¹Ì±¹À» °ø°ÝÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ICBM ¿ë °íü¿¬·á ¿£Áø ½ÃÇèÀÎÁö ¿©ºÎ¿¡ ÃÊÁ¡ÀÌ ¸ÂÃçÁö¸ç, ÀÌ¹Ì °íü¿¬·á ÃßÁø¹æ½ÄÀ» Áõ¸íÇÑ ´ë³² Ÿ°Ý ¼ö´ÜÀº ´õ¿í »ç°¢Áö´ë°¡ µÅ°¡°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¹®Á¦°¡ Á¦±âµË´Ï´Ù.
¿Ã¸® ÇÏÀ̳ë³Ù Àü ±¹Á¦¿øÀڷ±ⱸ(IAEA) »ç¹«Â÷ÀåÀº VOA¿ÍÀÇ ÀüÈÀÎÅͺ信¼ ¡°¿ª·®ÀÌ ºÒºÐ¸íÇÑ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ICBMº¸´Ù Çѱ¹°ú ÀϺ»À» °Ü³ÉÇÑ ÁߴܰŸ® ¹Ì»çÀÏÀÌ ÈξÀ ´õ °ÆÁ¤½º·´´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: ¿Ã¸® ÇÏÀ̳ë³Ù Àü ±¹Á¦¿øÀڷ±ⱸ(IAEA) »ç¹«Â÷Àå] ¡°But then you have to have also a reliable ICBM, but we don¡¯t really know where they are. ICBM really is what the U.S. people are worried but, you know, I will be worried more¡¦Japan and Korea. Medium range and short range missiles they have a lot.¡±
¡°ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÃÖ´ë 1t ¹«°ÔÀÇ ÇÙźµÎ¸¦ žÀçÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ÀÌ·± Á¾·ùÀÇ ¹Ì»çÀÏ¿¡ ÇöÀç 200kg Á¤µµÀÇ ÇÙźµÎ¸¦ ¿Ã·Á³õÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀº ÀÓ°èÄ¡¸¦ ÀÌ¹Ì ³ÑÀº °Í¡±ÀÎ ¸¸Å ¡°¹Ì±¹À» °Ü³ÉÇÏ´Â ICBM¸¸ °ÆÁ¤ÇÒ ¶§°¡ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù¡±¶ó´Â °Ì´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: ¿Ã¸® ÇÏÀ̳ë³Ù Àü ±¹Á¦¿øÀڷ±ⱸ(IAEA) »ç¹«Â÷Àå] ¡°The can carry a warhead up to one ton. This will certainly not be that heavy the nuclear warhead at this point of time. It will probably be a couple of hundred kilograms. So, you know, I think they have passed a threshold in such a way that we should not only worry about the ICBM.¡±
¹Ì ±º»ç Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ƯÈ÷ Áö³ 8¿ùºÎÅÍ ½ÃÇèÀ» °è¼ÓÇØ¿Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÃÊ´ëÇü ¹æ»çÆ÷¿¡ ÁÖ¸ñÇϸé¼, ¹ß»ç ¶§¸¶´Ù °³¼±µÈ ¿ª·®°ú
´Ü½Ã°£ ³»¿¡ Çѱ¹À» È¥¶õ¿¡ ºü¶ß¸± ÀáÀçÀû °ø°Ý·Â¿¡ ¿ì·Á¸¦ ³ªÅ¸³»°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù.
8¿ù 24ÀÏ, 9¿ù 10ÀÏ, 10¿ù 31ÀÏ, 11¿ù 28ÀÏ, 4Â÷·Ê ½ÃÇè ¹ß»ç¸¦ °ÅÄ¡¸é¼ »ç½Ç»ó ¿Ï¼º ´Ü°è¿¡ À̸£·¶´Ù´Â ºÐ¼®Àε¥, ½ÇÁ¦·Î 1Â÷ ¹ß»ç ¶§ 17ºÐÀÌ °É·È´ø ¿¬¼Ó ¹ß»ç °£°ÝÀº ÀÌÈÄ 19ºÐ, 3ºÐ, 30ÃÊ·Î ´ëÆø ´ÜÃàµÆ½À´Ï´Ù.
À̾ð Àª¸®¾ö½º Àü·«±¹Á¦¹®Á¦¿¬±¸¼Ò(CSIS) ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾îÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ºÎ±¹ÀåÀº ÃÖ±Ù ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¡®Áß´ë ½ÃÇ衯 ´ë»óÀ¸·Î ÃßÁ¤µÈ ¡°¿£Áø ½ÃÇ躸´Ù ÀÌ °°Àº ¹æ»çÆ÷ ½ÃÇèÀÌ Çѱ¹¿¡ ÈξÀ Á÷Á¢ÀûÀÌ°í Áï°¢Àû À§ÇùÀ» °¡ÇÑ´Ù¡±°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: À̾ð Àª¸®¾ö½º CSIS ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾îÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ºÎ±¹Àå] ¡°Those have much more direct, you know immediate kind of threat to South Korea and peace and stability in the region than this kind of engine test¡¦and that kind of system really aims at important military facilities very very quickly.¡±
¹«¾ùº¸´Ù ¡°30ÃʱîÁö ÁÙ¾îµç ¿¬¹ß»ç°Ý ½Ã°£Àº Çѱ¹ÀÌ ´ëÀÀÇÒ ½Ã°£À» °ÅÀÇ ÁÖÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù¡±´Â Á¡À» Áß´ëÇÑ ¹®Á¦Á¡À¸·Î ²Å¾Ò½À´Ï´Ù. ºÏÇÑ ¹æ»çÆ÷´Â ¡°Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¹Ì»çÀϹæ¾î¸ÁÀ» ¶Õ°í ±º»ç½Ã¼³ µî Á¼Àº Áö¿ª¿¡ ¾öû³ È·ÂÀ» ÆÛºÎÀ» ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï ÇØÁش١±´Â °Ì´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: À̾ð Àª¸®¾ö½º CSIS ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾îÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ºÎ±¹Àå] ¡°That¡¯s the kind of pace that you would want to be able to start challenging missile defense systems¡¦and also being able to get a lot of firepower into a small area quickly, not giving the defenders much time.¡±
ºê·ç½º º£³Ý ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ¡°¹æ»çÆ÷ÀÇ »ç°Å¸®¸¦ °í·ÁÇÒ ¶§ Çѱ¹ Àü¿ªÀ» ½É°¢ÇÏ°Ô À§ÇùÇÑ´Ù¡±¸ç, ¡°380kmÀÇ ºñÇà°Å¸®´Â Çѱ¹ ³» °ÅÀÇ ¸ðµç ¸ñÇ¥¹°ÀÌ ¹üÀ§¿¡ µé¾î°¡°í, ¼¿ï ¹Ù·Î À̺Ͽ¡¼ ½ò °æ¿ì ºÎ»êµµ »ç°Å¸®¿¡ Æ÷ÇԵȴ١±°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
[ºê·ç½º º£³Ý ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think the first thing we need to consider is the nature of the ¡°super-large¡± multiple rocket launcher. With a range of 380+ kms, the distance achieved with the tests, North Korea can cover most targets in the ROK, including Pusan, though the launchers would need to be deployed in North Korea just north of Seoul to reach this far. Thus the reach of these missiles poses a serious threat to most of South Korea.¡±
¹Ì±¹ »Ó ¾Æ´Ï¶ó Çѱ¹±îÁö ºÏÇÑÀÇ ICBM ¹ß»ç¸¸ ¸·À¸¸é µÈ´Ù´Â ŵµ¸¦ º¸ÀÌ´Â µ¿¾È ´ë³² Ÿ°Ý¿ë ¡®ÃÊ´ëÇü ¹æ»çÆ÷¡¯´Â ²ÙÁØÇÑ °³·® °úÁ¤À» °ÅÃÄ ½ÇÀü ¹èÄ¡¿¡ °¡±î¿öÁ³´Ù´Â °Ô Àü¹®°¡µéÀÇ Æò°¡ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
·Î¹öÆ® ¾ÆÀÎÈ¥ Àü ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹«ºÎ ºñÈ®»ê¡¤±ºÃà´ã´ç Ưº¸´Â ºÏÇÑÀÌ »õ ´Ù¿¬Àå·ÎÄÏÀ» ºÐ¸íÈ÷ ¹èÄ¡ÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¹Ï´Â´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[·Î¹öÆ® ¾ÆÀÎÈ¥ Àü ¹Ì±¹ ±¹¹«ºÎ ºñÈ®»ê¡¤±ºÃà´ã´ç Ưº¸] ¡°I believe the North has every intention of deploying its new multiple rocket launcher. But as it continues to take steps to strengthen its own conventional military capabilities, it is on weak grounds to complain about US-ROK military exercises to defend against those capabilities.¡±
±×·¯¸é¼ ºÏÇÑÀÌ Àç·¡½Ä ±º»ç ¿ª·®À» °è¼Ó °ÈÇϸé¼, ¹Ù·Î ±×·± ¿ª·®¿¡ ¸Â¼·Á´Â ¹Ì-ÇÑ ¿¬ÇÕ±º»çÈƷÿ¡ ´ëÇØ ºÒÆòÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ¼³µæ·ÂÀÌ ¾àÇÏ´Ù°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
º£³Ý ·£µå ¿¬±¸¿øÀº (1997³â Çѱ¹À¸·Î ¸Á¸íÇÑ) ȲÀ忱 Àü ³ëµ¿´çºñ¼°¡ ¹Ì±¹ Á¤Ã¥ ´ç±¹Àڵ鿡 Çß´Ù´Â ¸»À» ÀοëÇØ ¡°ºÏÇÑÀº ºÎÀÚ ³ª¶ó°¡ ¾Æ´Ï¾î¼ ±â²¯ ¹«±â¸¦ ¸¸µé¾î ³õ°í ¹èÄ¡ÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â ¹ýÀÌ ¾ø´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ±×·¯¸é¼ ¡°ºÏÇÑÀº ¡®ÃÊ´ëÇü ¹æ»çÆ÷¡¯¸¦ ¹èÄ¡ÇÒ °èȹÀ̰ųª ÀÌ¹Ì ¹èÄ¡Çϱ⠽ÃÀÛÇßÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ³»´ÙºÃ½À´Ï´Ù.
[ºê·ç½º º£³Ý ·£µå¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] As Hwang Jang-yop told a US planner years ago, North Korea is not a wealthy country: It cannot afford to make weapons plans to not deploy. So yes, I would expect the North to deploy these new super-large multiple rocket launchers; the North may have already started deploying them.¡±
±º»çÀü¹®°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀ¸·ÎºÎÅÍ ¿¬¼ÓÀ¸·Î ³¯¾Æ¿À´Â ´Ü°Å¸®¹Ì»çÀÏ¿¡ ´ë·®»ì»ó¹«±â°¡ žÀçµÅ ÀÖ´Â »óȲÀ» Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¿ì·ÁÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÃÖ¾ÇÀÇ À§±â ½Ã³ª¸®¿À·Î ²Å½À´Ï´Ù.
¹«¾ùº¸´Ù ¡®´ë±â±ÇÀçÁøÀÔ¡¯ ±â´ÉÀÌ ÇÊ¿ä ¾ø´Â ´Ü°Å¸® ¹Ì»çÀÏ¿¡ ÇÙźµÎ¸¦ ÀåÂøÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» ¸¸Å ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¡®¼ÒÇüÈ¡¯ ±â¼ú¿¡ ÁøÀüÀÌ ÀÌ·ïÁ³´Ù´Â °üÃøÀÌ À̸¦ µÞ¹ÞħÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
¿Ã¸® ÇÏÀ̳ë³Ù Àü IAEA »ç¹«Â÷ÀåÀº ¡°ºÏÇÑÀÌ °ÅµìµÈ ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ» ÅëÇØ ICBM žÀç¿ë ÇÙ¹«±â¿¡ ´ëÇØ »ó´çÇÑ Áö½ÄÀ» È®º¸Çß´Ù¡±°í Æò°¡Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: ¿Ã¸® ÇÏÀ̳ë³Ù Àü ±¹Á¦¿øÀڷ±ⱸ(IAEA) »ç¹«Â÷Àå] ¡°Put this big test aside, but I think the other ones also take a point to the direction that by now, you know, they have a fairly good understanding how to have a nuclear device, which fits to the ICBM.¡±
À̾ð Àª¸®¾ö½º Àü·«±¹Á¦¹®Á¦¿¬±¸¼Ò(CSIS) ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾îÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ºÎ±¹ÀåÀº ·¯½Ã¾ÆÁ¦ ½ºÄ¿½º °è¿ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀº ¾ÖÃÊ¿¡ »ó´çÇÑ Áß·®ÀÇ ÇÙźµÎ¸¦ žÀçÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï ¼³°èµÆ´Ù¸ç, µû¶ó¼ ºÏÇÑÀÌ ±×·± ¿ª·®À» °®Ãá °ÍÀ¸·Î º»´Ù°í ºÐ¼®Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: À̾ð Àª¸®¾ö½º CSIS ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾îÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ºÎ±¹Àå] ¡°The Russians designed this Scud, they designed it to carry a pretty heavy nuclear warhead. So my assumption is that they probably can. It can do so. It might affect the range of them. Probably would reduce their range back down to 500~600km range.¡±
ºê·ç½º º¤Åç Åػ罺 ¾ØÁ©·Î ÁÖ¸³´ë ±³¼ö´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ±âÁ¸ 300mm ¹æ»çÆ÷³ª 600mm ¡®ÃÊ´ëÇü ¹æ»çÆ÷¡¯¿¡ ÈÇй«±â¸¦ ÀåÂøÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
º¤Åç ±³¼ö´Â ÇÙ¹«±â°¡ ÈξÀ È¿°úÀûÀÌ°ÚÁö¸¸ ÈÇй«±â´Â ±Ø½ÉÇÑ °øÆ÷°¨À» ¾È°ÜÁشٸç, ÈÇÐź źµÎ¸¦ žÀçÇÑ ºÏÇÑ ¹æ»çÆ÷°¡ À¯µµ ÀåÄ¡¸¦ ÀÌ¿ëÇØ ¿À»ê °ø±º±âÁö¸¦ °ø°ÝÇÒ °æ¿ì °øȲ»óŸ¦ °¡Á®¿Í ±âÁö°¡ °ð¹Ù·Î Æó¼âµÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.
[³ìÃë: ºê·ç½º º¤Åç Åػ罺 ¾ØÁ©·Î ÁÖ¸³´ë ±³¼ö] If they launch a 600 millimeter MRL or 300 millimeter MRL at Osan Air Base, and it's got a chemical warhead on it, you know what's going to happen. That base is going to shut down. So that's a pretty big deal.¡±
º¤Åç ±³¼ö´Â ºÏÇÑÀÌ ±¸°æ 600mmÀÇ ¡®ÃÊ´ëÇü ¹æ»çÆ÷¡¯ ±â¼úÀ» ¿Ï¼ºÇϱâ À§ÇØ ¹Ýµå½Ã Ãß°¡ ½ÇÇèÀ» ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó¸ç, ±×¶§¸¶´Ù À̸¦ Á¤Ä¡Àû ÀïÁ¡À¸·Î ¸¸µé¾î ÀÌÀÍÀ» ¾òÀ¸·Á ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ³»´ÙºÃ½À´Ï´Ù.
VOA ´º½º ¹é¼º¿ø ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.