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Atomic Shakedown
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- ´ÏÄÝ¶ó½º ¿¡¹ö½ºÅ¸Æ®
2004. 1. 12. AEI
By Nicholas Eberstadt
Posted: Monday, January 12, 2004
ARTICLES
Time Asia
Publication Date: January 19, 2004
How many times can someone sell the same dead puppy to the same dupes? North Korea's Kim Jong Il is currently conducting an international experiment to determine the answer to this question. The merchandise the Dear Leader is hawking isn't really a dog that won't hunt, of course--it's another phony nuclear deal. And the credulous buyers aren't simpletons at a county fair--they're top Western and Asian statesmen. Given the high stakes in this sting and the sophistication of the intended victims, you'd think the game would have been shut down before now.
Á×Àº °¾ÆÁö ÇÑ ¸¶¸®¸¦ °è¼Ó ÆÈ°íÀÖ´Â ÀÚ¿¡°Ô ºÀ(¼Ó±â ÀßÇÏ´Â »ç¶÷)Àº ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ¸î¹øÀ̳ª ´õ ¼Ó°Ô µÉ±î ?
ºÏÇÑ ±èÁ¤ÀÏÀº ÃÖ±Ù ±¹Á¦ÀûÀÎ ½ÇÇèÀ» ÁöÈÖÇÏ°í Àִµ¥,
±× ¼ÓÀÓ¼ö¾²´Â »óÀÎ, Ä£¾ÖÇÏ´Â ÁöµµÀÚµ¿Áö - ¸Å»ç³ÉÀ» ÇÏ´Â °Í°°Àº- ´Â ½ÇÁ¦·Î ¹° ¼ö ÀÖ´Â 'µ¶±×;°³'°¡ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ°ÍÀº ¶Ç´Ù¸¥ ³¯Á¶ ÇÙÇù»óÀÌ´Ù.
¼Ó±â ÀϾ¥ÀÎ ¹ÙÀ̾îµé, ±¹ÀÍÀ» À§ÇØ ¾ó°£À̵µ ¾Æ´Ñ, ±×µéÀº ¼¹æÀÇ ¼ö³úµéÀÌ°í ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀÇ Á¤»óµéÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ »ç±â±Ø¿¡ °É¸° ³ôÀº Æǵ·À», µý»ý°¢À» °®°íÀÖ´Â 'Èñ»ýÀÚ'µé¿¡°Ô ÁÖ¾î¹ö¸®¸é, ÀüºÎÅÍ ¹Ð°í ´ç±â´ø °ÔÀÓÀÌ ³¡³¯ °Å¶ó°íµé ¿©±â°í ÀÖ´Ù.
But you'd be wrong. The latest hapless steps toward another session of 'six-party talks' in the North Korean nuclear drama, in fact, suggest that diplomats are assuming their familiar positions for another round of atomic bait-and-switch.
ÇÏÁö¸¸, ´ç½ÅµéÀº ¹®Á¦°¡ ÀÖ´Ù.
ºÏÇÙ µå¶ó¸¶¿¡¼ ¹ú¾îÁö´Â '6ÀÚÇù»ó'ÀÇ ¶Ç´Ù¸¥ ¶ó¿îµå·Î ÇâÇØ°¡´Â ºÒ¿îÇÑ °ÉÀ½¸¶°¡ ¸·¹ÙÁö¿¡ ¿ÍÀÖ´Ù. Áø½Ç·Î, ÇÙÀ¸·Î À¯ÀÎÇÏ´Â ßÂâú;»ó¼ú¿¡¼ »õ·Î ½ÃÀÛµÉ ¶ó¿îµå¿¡¼ ¿Ü±³°üµéÀº ±×Àú ±×µéÀÌ Àͼ÷ÇÑ ½À°ü¿¡ ÀÇ°ÅÇØ È®½ÅÇÏ¸ç ¿òÁ÷ÀÌ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
For the moment, the primary obstacle to Pyongyang's receiving more international donations in exchange for false promises to dismantle its nuclear weapons program is U.S. President George W. Bush, who has stated that he will not be blackmailed. Last week, however, Pyongyang executed a deft end-run around Bush.
ÇöÀç, Æò¾çÀÌ ¿ä±¸ÇÏ´Â ÈξÀ ¸¹Àº Áö¿øÀ» °¡Â¥¾à¼Ó(ÇÙ¹«±âÇØü)°ú ±³È¯ÇØÁÖ¾î¾ß ÇÏ´Â ÀÌ´Â ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ºÎ½Ã´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ´Ù. ºÎ½Ã´Â Á× °ø°¥¿¡ ³Ñ¾î°¡Áö ¾Ê°Ú´Ù°í õ¸íÇØ¿Ô´Ù. ±×·³¿¡µµ, Áö³ ÁÖ, Æò¾çÀº ¿£µå·±(°øÀ» °¡Áø ¼±¼ö°¡ ÈĹæÀ¸·Î µ¹¾Æ°¡´Â Ç÷¹ÀÌ;±³¹¦ÇÑ È¸ÇÇ)À» ÀçÄ¡ÀÖ°Ô Á¦½ÃÇß´Ù.
North Korea's play was to invite an unofficial delegation of Americans (including former State Department official Charles Pritchard and Stanford University Professor John W. Lewis) for an inspection tour of the Death Star itself, the Yongbyon nuclear complex. As the would-be dealmakers settled into their hotel rooms, North Korea's news agency pitched a 'bold concession' for ending the nuclear impasse: in return for an end to Washington's economic sanctions and a resumption of free supplies of energy from the U.S. and its allies, Pyongyang would 'refrain from [the] testing and production of nuclear weapons and even stop operating [its] nuclear power industry.'
ºÏÇÑÀÌ ¹úÀÌ´Â ¼öÀÛÀº ¹Ì±¹ÆÄ°ß´ÜÀ» ºñ°ø½ÄÀ¸·Î À¯Ä¡ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ̾ú´Ù.
(±× ¼Ó¿£ ÀüÁ÷ ±¹¹«ºÎ°ü¸®ÀΠ𽺠ÇÁ¸®Ãµå¿Í ½ºÅÄÆ÷µå´ëÇб³¼öÀÎ Á¸ ·çÀ̽º°¡ ÀÖ´Ù. ) 'µ¥½º ½ºÅ¸;Á×À½ÀÇ º°?'³ª °°Àº ¿µº¯ ÇÙ¹ßÀü¼Ò·ÎÀÇ °üÂû¿©ÇàÀ» Á¦½ÃÇÑ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
ÀÚĪ Çù»óÀÚ(»õ 6ÀÚÇù»ó)°¡ µÇ°íÇ Àǵµ°¡ ÀÖ´Â À̵éÀ» È£Åڹ濡 °¡µÐ ä, ºÏÇÑÀÇ º¸µµ´Â, ÇÙ±³Âø»óŸ¦ ³¡³»±â À§ÇØ <°ú°¨ÇÑ ¾çº¸>¸¦ ³»·Áº¸³Â´Ù. ; ´ç¿¬È÷ ¿ö½ÌÅÏ°ú ¹Ì±¹ µîÀÇ ÀçÁ¤Áõ¿©¿Í ¹«»ó¿¡³ÊÁö°ø±Þ Àç°³°¡ º¸»óÀÌ µÇ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
Æò¾çÀº ' [±×] ½ÇÇè°ú ÇÙ¹«±â»ý»êÀ» (°è¼Ó ÇÏ°í ½ÍÁö¸¸,) ÀÚÁ¦ÇÏ°í ½ÉÁö¾î [±×°Í]¿¡¼ ³ª¿À´Â ÇÙ¹ßÀü±îÁö ¾ïÁ¦' ÇÏ°Ú´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
A little background illustrates the hollowness of this promise. The dynastic enterprise known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (D.P.R.K.) has been open for business since 1948, and for most of that time it's been building, and gaming, its nuclear program.
Á¶±Ý¸¸ ¹è°æÀ» ¿ì¸®°¡ ÈȾ¸é ÀÌ·± ºÏÇѾà¼ÓÀÌ ¾ó¸¶³ª °øÇãÇÑÁö ¾Ë ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.
Àú ¿ÕÁ·±â¾÷´Ü(±èÁ¤Àϼ¼½ÀÁ¤±Ç)Àº 1948³â ÀιιÎÁÖ°øȱ¹À̶õ <ºñÁö´Ï½º>¸¦ ½ÃÀÛÇϸ鼺ÎÅÍ ÇöÀç±îÁö ¼öµµ ¾øÀÌ ¿©·¯ ¹ø ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ ¸¸µé·Á°í ½ÃµµÇÏ°í °ÔÀÓÀ» ¹ú¿´´Ù.
Long ago, Kim & Co. figured out a formula for extracting protection money from abroad in return for promising to scrap the nukes: make a deal, break the deal, then demand a new deal for more, issuing threats until you get what you want.
¿À·¡ Àü¿¡, '±è'ÁÖ½Äȸ»ç´Â ÇÙÇØü¸¦ ÇÏ°Ú³ë¶ó°í ¾à¼ÓÇÏ´Â ´ñ°¡·Î Á¤±ÇÀ¯ÁöÀÚ±ÝÀ» Á¤±âÀûÀ¸·Î »©¾î¸Ô¾ú´Ù°í ¿ì¸®°¡ º¸¾Æ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. Çù»óÇÏ°ï, Çù»óÀ» ±ú¶ß¸®°í, ´Ù½Ã Çù»óÀ» ¿ä±¸ÇÏ¸é¼ ¿ì¸®µéÀÌ ¿øÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» ¾òÀ» ¶§±îÁö ±×·± ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÀïÁ¡ÈÇÑ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
So far, it's worked pretty well. Pyongyang got the previous President Bush to remove all U.S. nukes from South Korea to grease the 1991 North-South deal for the 'denuclearization' of the Korean peninsula.
¿©Å±îÁö ±×·± ½ÄÀ¸·Î Á¤¸» Àß ÇØ¿Ô´ø °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
Æò¾çÁ¤±ÇÀº 1991³â¿¡´Â Çѹݵµ 'ºñÇÙÈ'¶õ °£ÆÇÀ» ³»°Ç ³²ºÏÇù»ó¿¡ ±â¸§Ä¥Çϵµ·Ï ´ç½Ã´ëÅë·É ºÎ½Ã¿¡°Ô ³²ÇÑ¿¡ ¹èÄ¡Çß´ø ÇÙ¹«±â±îÁö ¸ðµÎ Á¦°ÅÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé¾ú´Ù.
Pyongyang was caught cheating on that understanding--so it threatened to turn Seoul into a 'sea of fire,' and landed an improved deal from the Clinton Administration (the 1994 Agreed Framework, with free oil and free nuclear reactors in exchange for a freeze on D.P.R.K. nuclear sites).
±×·± ÈÄ¿¡´Â 1994³â '¼¿ï ºÒ¹Ù´Ù'¸¦ ¶°µé¸ç ´Ù½Ã À§ÇùÀ» ½ÃÀÛÇÏ°ï, Ŭ¸°Åϳ»°¢ÀÌ ÈξÀ ÁÁÀº Á¶°ÇÀ» º£Çª´Â Çù»óÀ» ÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé¾ú´Ù.
ÇÑ ¸¶µð·Î »ç±â¼ú¿¡ ±æµé¿©Áø Áý´ÜÀÌ´Ù.
When Kim & Co. seemed to be cheating on the Agreed Framework in 1999, Washington paid 500,000 tons in food aid to inspect a single suspect nuclear site. (In the course of those negotiations, North Korea warned about a possible 'pre-emptive strike' on the U.S. if the talks failed.)
1999³â [±è ÁÖ½Äȸ»ç;Æò¾çÁ¤±Ç]ÀÌ ´Ù½Ã ¸ÕÀúÀÇ ÇÙÇùÁ¤µ¿ÀǼ¸¦ µÎ°í »ç±âÄ¡±â ½ÃÀÛÇß´Ù. ±× ÇùÁ¤µ¿ÀǼ¸¦ À§ÇØ ¿ö½ÌÅÏÀº ÇÙ¼³ºñ·Î ÀǽɵǴø ´Ü ÇÑ °÷ÀÇ °Ë»ç¸¦ À§ÇØ 5 ½Ê¸¸ÅæÀ̶õ ¾ç°îÀ» °ø¿©ÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Â°¡ ?
(±×·± ½ÄÀÇ ¸Å¹ø ÇùÁ¤µé¸¶´Ù, ºÏÇÑÀº ´ëÈ°¡ ½ÇÆÐÇϸé, ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ <¼±Á¦°ø°Ý>ÇÒ °Å¶ó°í ¾Æ¿ì¼º±îÁö ÃÆ´Ù. )
In October 2002, North Korea was once again caught cheating on its nuclear freeze arrangements--this time, with its secret, highly enriched uranium program. So what did Pyongyang do? Naturally, it upped the ante.
2002³â ½Ã¿ù, ºÏÇÑÀº ´Ù½Ã Çѹø ¾ó¾îºÙÀº ÇÙÇö¾ÈÀ» µÎ°í »ç±âÄ¡±â¸¦ ½ÃµµÇÑ´Ù.
À̹ø¿¡´Â ±×°£ ºñ¹ÐÈ÷ ¼û°ÜµÐ, °í³óÃà ¿ì¶ó´½ÇÁ·Î±×·¥ÀÌ´Ù.
±×¸®ÇÏ¿© Æò¾çÀº ¾î¶»°Ô ÁøÇàÇϳª ?
¾ØƼ(Æ÷Ä¿½ÃÀÛ¶§ Å¿ì´Â Æǵ·)À» ¿Ã¸®´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
It kicked out all the inspectors called for under the Agreed Framework and tore up its copy of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
±×µéÀº ÇùÁ¤¼°¡ º¸ÀåÇÑ °Ë»ç¿ä¿øµéÀ» ¹ß·Î Â÷¹ö·È°í, ÇÙÈ®»ê¹æÁöÁ¶¾à ¼·ù¸¦ °¥°¥ÀÌ Âõ¾î³»¾ú´Ù.
Kim started saying the D.P.R.K. possessed nuclear weapons and that it might be time to test, or sell, one.
±èÁÖ½Äȸ»ç´Â [ÀιιÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ°øȱ¹]ÀÌ ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ ¼ÒÀ¯ÇÏ°Ô µÇ¾ú´Ù°í ¶°µé¾úÀ¸¸ç, Á¶¸¸°£ ½ÇÇèÇغ¸À̵çÁö, ³»´ÙÆȵçÁö ¾Æ¹« °Å³ª ÇÒ °Å¶ó°í ¿ì±â±â ½ÃÀÛÇÑ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
And it began asking for a lot more foreign cash to keep things quiet in the neighborhood. Under last week's proposal, North Korea would get not only a resumption of goodies bargained for in the Agreed Framework but also new money from the World Bank and others ('ending sanctions' is code for Washington's unlocking the door to multilateral aid).
±×¸®°ï ±èÁÖ½Äȸ»çÀÇ ÀÌ¿ôµé¿¡°Ô Á¶¿ëÇÒ Å×´Ï, ¿Ü±¹µ·À̳ª Èì¾À ³»³õÀ¸¶ó°í ºÎŹÇϱ⠽ÃÀÛÇß´Ù.
Áö³ ÁÖÀÇ Á¦¾È¿¡¼(¹Ì±¹ ºñÆÄ°ß´ÜÀÇ ¿µº¯¹æ¹®), ºÏÇÑÀº (ÆıâÇÑ) ÇÙÇùÁ¤¼¸¦ ȸº¹½ÃÅ°´Â °Í¸¸ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó, ¼¼°èÀºÇà°ú ÁÖº¯±¹°¡´õ·¯ »õ ÈÆó¸¦ ³»¿À¶ó°í ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
It looks as if Pyongyang's shakedown artists have judged their international market correctly.
Áø½Ç·Î Æò¾çÀÇ ÇÙ°¥Ãë°ø°¥Çù¹ÚÀÇ ¿¹¼ú°¡µéÀº ÀÚ±â³×°¡ ÇÏ°íÀÖ´Â ±¹Á¦½ÃÀåÀÇ ÆǼ¼¿¡ ´ëÇØ Á¤È®È÷ ²ç¶Õ¾îº¸°í ÀÖÁö ¾ÊÀº°¡ ?
Western and Asian diplomats are whipping out their calculators to figure the new price for postponing a North Korean nuclear breakout.
¼¹æ°ú ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ¿Ü±³°üµéÀº, ºÏÇÑ ÇÙÇØü°¡ ´Ê¾îÁö´Â µ¿¾È ´Ã¾î°¡´Â µ·¹¶Ä¡¿¡ ´ëÇØ °è»ê±â¸¦ µÎµé°Ü´ë´Â ÁßÀÌ´Ù.
Last week, Beijing lauded North Korea's 'further willingness' to 'stop nuclear activities'; in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell hailed the offer as 'a positive step' that 'will allow us to move more rapidly toward the six-party framework talks.'
Áö³ ÁÖ, º£ÀÌ¡Àº ºÏÇÑÀÇ 'Ãß°¡ÀûÀÎ ÀÇÁö' - 'ÇÙÈ°µ¿À» ¸ØÃß°Ú³ë¶õ'¿¡ ´ëÇØ Äª¼ÛÇßÀ¸¸ç, ¿ö½ÌÅÏ¿¡¼± Æ÷À£±¹¹«Àå°üÀÌ 'Àû±ØÀûÀÎ ÇൿÀÔ´Ï´Ù'.- ' 6ÀÚÇù»óÀÌ ÈξÀ ½º¹«½ºÇÏ°Ô ÁøÇàµÉ' - ¶ó¸ç °æÇÏÇÏ¿´´Ù.
Lost in this feel-good chorus was any apparent recollection of the original objective of talks with the North: namely, to hold Pyongyang to its earlier promises to scrap its nuclear program completely and forever.
ÀÌ ±âºÐÁÁÀº ÇÕâÀº ºÏÇÑ°úÀÇ ´ëÈ¿¡ ±âÃàÀÌ µÇ´Â ³»¿ëÀ» °í·ÁÇϸé, ±Ý¼¼ ½ÇÁ¾µÉ ÀÏÀÌ´Ù. ¸»ÇÏÀÚ¸é, ÇÙÇÁ·Î±×·¥À» '¿ÏÀüÈ÷', '¿µ±¸È÷' ÇØüÇÏ´Â Æò¾çÁ¤±ÇÀ̾î¾ß ÇÑ´Ù´ÂÁ¡ÀÌ´Ù.
As North Korea's neighbors prepare to be fleeced, one may wonder:
ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÁÖº¯±¹°¡µéÀº ´©±¸¶óµµ ÀǾÆÇØÇÒ ºÎµå·¯¿î ¾çÅа¡Á×(fleece;»ç±â±Ø°úµµ µ¿ÀǾîÀÓ) À» Áö±Ý ±ò¾ÆÁÖ·Á ÇÏ°í Àִµ¥.
What keeps this con going? It's not that American and Asian leaderships are invincibly ignorant.
±×°ÍÀº ¹«¾ùÀ» ÁöÅ°·Á´Â °ÍÀÎÁö ?
¹Ì±¹°ú ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº ´ëÃ¥¾ø´Â ¹«½ÄÇÔ¿¡ »ç·ÎÀâÈù °ÍÀΰ¡ ?
They've just bought into a variant of La Grande Illusion (as such thinking was called in France in the late 1930s).
±×µéÀº '¶ó±×¶ûµ¥ÀÏ·çÁÔ'¸¦ Áö±Ý²¯ »çµéÀÌ°í ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. (1930³â ÈĹݺÎÅÍ ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ½ÃµµµéÀ» ÇÁ¶û½º¿¡¼´Â ¶ó±×¶ûµ¥ÀÏ·çÁÔÀ¸·Î ºÎ¸¥´Ù.)
- À§´ëÇÑ È¯¿µ êÉÓÞ-ü³ç¯ (La Grande Illusion); Á¦1Â÷ ¼¼°è´ëÀü ÁßÀÇ ½Çȸ¦ ¹ÙÅÁÀ¸·Î Àΰ£¾Ö¿Í ÆòµîÀ» È£¼ÒÇÑ 1937³âÀÛ ÇÁ¶û½º ¿µÈ. -
The notion that the Kim regime has absolutely no intention of ever giving up its nuclear capability--at any price, for any reason--is too terrible to face. Better to play pretend, even if this means being bilked in return for fake ' breakthroughs' and bogus 'accords.'
'±èÁ¤±ÇÀº Àý´ëÀûÀ¸·Î ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ Æ÷±âÇÒ »ý°¢ÀÌ ¾ø´Ù.' - ¾î¶² °ªÀ» ¹Þ°Ç, ¾î¶² ÀÌÀ¯°¡ µÇ¾ú°Ç, - ´Â ¸·¿¬ÇÑ »ý°¢Àº Á÷¸éÇϱ⿣ ³Ê¹« ¹«¼¿î ÀÏÀÌÁö¸¸,
ºñ·Ï 'À§Á¶ÀûÁøµ¹ÆÄ'°ú '»çÀ̺ñÈÀ½'À¸·Î »ç±âÄ¡´Â ÀÏÀÌ µÉ Áö¶óµµ Çൿ(ÀüÀï)Çϴ ü¶óµµ ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ¿ÇÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute.
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Source Notes: This article appears in the January 19, 2003, issue of Time Asia
AEI Print Index No. 16237
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