* Çؼ³: Áö½ÄÀÎÀÌ »ýÁö¿ÁÀ» ¸¸µç´Ù
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14. Vote for me, dimwit
How the electorate is irrational
14-1-80
Anyone who follows an election campaign too closely will sometimes get the feeling that politicians think voters are idiots. A new book says they are. Or rather, Bryan Caplan, an economics professor at George Mason University, makes the slightly politer claim that voters systematically favour irrational policies. In a democracy, rational politicians give them what they (irrationally) want. In 'The Myth of the Rational Voter', Mr Caplan explains why this happens, why it matters and what we can do about it.
The world is a complex place. Most people are inevitably ignorant about most things, which is why shows like 'Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?' are funny. Politics is no exception. Only 15% of Americans know who Harry Reid (the Senate majority leader) is, for example. True, more than 90% can identify Arnold Schwarzenegger. But that has a lot to do with the governor of California's previous job pretending to be a killer robot.
Many political scientists think this does not matter because of a phenomenon called the 'miracle of aggregation' or, more poetically, the 'wisdom of crowds'. If ignorant voters vote randomly, the candidate who wins a majority of well-informed voters will win. The principle yields good results in other fields. On 'Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?', another quiz show, the answer most popular with the studio audience is correct 91% of the time.
14. ¹Ùº¸¾ß, ³ª¸¦ Âï¾î
: À¯±ÇÀÚ´Â ´ë´ÜÈ÷ ºñÀ̼ºÀûÀÌ´Ù
¼±°Å¿îµ¿À» ØúÚË(¸é¹Ð)ÇÏ°Ô ÃßÀûÇغ¸´Â »ç¶÷Àº ´©±¸¶óµµ Á¤Ä¡ÀεéÀÌ À¯±ÇÀÚ¸¦ ¹éÄ¡·Î »ý°¢ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â ´À³¦À» Á¾Á¾ °¡Áö°Ô µÈ´Ù. »õ·Î ³ª¿Â ¾î¶² Ã¥ÀÌ À¯±ÇÀÚµéÀÌ ¹éÄ¡¶ó°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. ȤÀº George Mason´ëÇÐÀÇ Bryan Caplan °æÁ¦ÇÐ ±³¼ö´Â À¯±ÇÀÚµéÀº Á¶Á÷ÀûÀ¸·Î ºñÇÕ¸®ÀûÀÎ Á¤Ã¥À» ¼±È£ÇÑ´Ù´Â ´Ù¼Ò(rather) ´õ Á¤ÁßÇÑ ÁÖÀåÀ» ÇÑ´Ù. ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ ±¹°¡¿¡¼´Â À̼ºÀûÀÎ(Á¤½ÅÀÌ ¸»Â¯ÇÑ) Á¤Ä¡ÀεéÀÌ À¯±ÇÀڵ鿡°Ô ±×µéÀÌ (ºñÀ̼ºÀûÀ¸·Î) ¿øÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» ÁØ´Ù. Mr CaplanÀº ¡°À̼ºÀû À¯±ÇÀÚ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ½ÅÈ¡±¿¡¼ ¿Ö ÀÌ·± ÀÏÀÌ ÀϾ°í ¿Ö ±×°Í(ÀÌ·± ÀÏ)ÀÌ Áß¿äÇÑÁö ±×¸®°í ¿ì¸®°¡ ±×°Í¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ¹«¾ùÀ» ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´ÂÁö¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ¼³¸íÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
¼¼»óÀº º¹ÀâÇÑ °÷ÀÌ´Ù. ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ »ç¶÷µéÀº ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ ÀÏ¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ºÒ°¡ÇÇÇÏ°Ô ¹«ÁöÇϸç ÀÌ°ÍÀÌ ¡°´ç½ÅÀº 5Çг⠾ÆÀÌ(ÃʵîÇб³) º¸´Ù ´õ ¶È¶ÈÇմϱî?)°°Àº ¼î(TV)°¡ Àç¹ÌÀÖ´Â ÀÌÀ¯ÀÌ´Ù. ¿¹¸¦ µé¾î¼, ¹Ì±¹Àεé Áß¿¡¼ 15%¸¸ÀÌ Harry Reid(»ó¿ø ´Ù¼ö´ç ÁöµµÀÚ)°¡ ´©±¸ÀÎÁö¸¦ ¾Ë°í ÀÖ´Ù. Áø½Ç·Î 90%ÀÌ»óÀÌ Arnold SchwarzeneggerÀÇ ½Å¿øÀ» È®ÀÎÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ±× ÀÌÀ¯´Â(that) California ÁÖÁö»ç°¡ »ìÀÎ ·Îº¿À¸·Î ¿¬±âÇÏ´Â(pretending) °Í°ú ¸¹Àº °ü°è°¡ ÀÖ´Ù.
¸¹Àº Á¤Ä¡ÇÐÀÚµéÀº ÀÌ°ÍÀº ¡°ÁýÇÕüÀÇ ±âÀû¡± ȤÀº, ´õ ãÌîÜ(½ÃÀû)À¸·Î, ¡°´ÙÁßÀÇ ÁöÇý¡±¶ó°í ÀÏÄþîÁö´Â Çö»ó ¶§¹®¿¡ Áß¿äÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù. ¸¸¾à¿¡ ¹«ÁöÇÑ À¯±ÇÀÚ°¡ í°ëòîÜ(ÀÚÀÇÀû)À¸·Î(¼±Àü ¼±µ¿¿¡ ³Ñ¾î°¡Áö ¾Ê°í µ¶ÀÚÀûÀ¸·Î) ÅõÇ¥ÇÑ´Ù¸é, Á¤º¸¸¦ Àß ¾Ë°í ÀÖ´Â À¯±ÇÀÚÀÇ ´Ù¼ö¸¦ ȹµæÇÏ´Â Èĺ¸ÀÚ°¡ ½Â¸®ÇÏ°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ ¿øÄ¢Àº ´Ù¸¥ ºÐ¾ß¿¡¼µµ ÁÁÀº °á°ú¸¦ »ý»êÇÑ´Ù. ¶Ç ÇϳªÀÇ ÄûÁî ¼îÀÎ ¡°´©°¡ ¹é¸¸ÀåÀÚ°¡ µÇ±â¸¦ ¿øÇϴ°¡?¡±¿¡¼ ±× ½ºÆ©µð¿À¿¡ Âü¼®ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â »ç¶÷µé(audience)¿¡°Ô °¡Àå Àαâ ÀÖ´Â ÇØ´äÀÌ ±× ½ÃÁ¡¿¡¼ 91% Á¤È®ÇÏ´Ù.
14-2-81
Financial markets, too, show how a huge number of guesses, aggregated, can value a stock or bond more accurately than any individual expert could. But Mr Caplan says that politics is different because ignorant voters do not vote randomly.
Instead, he identifies four biases that prompt voters systematically to demand policies that make them worse off. People do not understand how the pursuit of private profits often yields public benefits: they have anti-market bias. Second, they underestimate the benefits of interactions with foreigners: they have an anti-foreign bias. Third, they equate prosperity with employment rather than production: Mr Caplan calls this the 'make-work bias'. Finally, they tend to think economic conditions are worse than they are, a bias towards pessimism.
Mr Caplan gives a sense of how strong these biases are by comparing the general public's views on economic questions with those of economists and with those of highly educated non-economists. For example, asked why petrol prices have risen, the public mostly blames the greed of oil firms. Economists nearly all blame the law of supply and demand. Experts are sometimes wrong, notes Mr Caplan, but in this case the public's view makes no sense. If petrol prices rise because oil firms want higher profits, how come they sometimes fall?
±ÝÀ¶½ÃÀåµµ Áý´ÜÈµÈ °Å´ëÇÑ ¼ö(´ÙÁß)ÀÇ ÃßÃøÀÌ ´Ù¸¥ ¾î¶² °³ÀÎ Àü¹®°¡°¡ ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â °Íº¸´Ùµµ ÁÖ½ÄÀ̳ª ä±ÇÀ» ¾î¶»°Ô ´õ Á¤È®ÇÏ°Ô Æò°¡ÇÒ ¼ö Àִ°¡¸¦ º¸¿©ÁØ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª Mr Caplan´Â Á¤Ä¡´Â ¹«ÁöÇÑ À¯±ÇÀÚµéÀÌ ÀÚÀÇÀû(¼±Àü¼±µ¿¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÞÁö ¾Ê°í µ¶ÀÚÀû)À¸·Î ÅõÇ¥ÇÏÁö ¾Ê±â ¶§¹®¿¡ ´Ù¸£´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.
´ë½Å¿¡ ±×´Â À¯±ÇÀÚµé·Î ÇÏ¿©±Ý ±×µéÀÇ »ì¸²ÇüÆíÀ» ´õ ³ª»Ú°Ô ¸¸µå´Â Á¤Ã¥À» Á¶Á÷ÀûÀ¸·Î ¿ä±¸Çϵµ·Ï ÀçÃËÇÏ´Â 4°³ÀÇ ¼ºÇâÀ» È®ÀÎÇÑ´Ù. »ç¶÷µéÀº ¾î¶»°Ô ÞçìÌ(»çÀÍ)ÀÇ Ãß±¸°¡ ÍëìÌ(°øÀÍ)À» »ý»êÇÏ°Ô µÇ´ÂÁö¸¦ ÀÌÇØÇÏÁö ¸øÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. Áï ±×µéÀº Úã(¹Ý) ½ÃÀåÀû ¼ºÇâÀ» °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù. µÑ°, ±×µéÀº ¿Ü±¹ÀΰúÀÇ »óÈ£°Å·¡ÀÇ À̵æ(ÇýÅÃ)À» °ú¼ÒÆò°¡ÇÑ´Ù. Áï ±×µéÀº Úã¿Ü±¹ ¼ºÇâÀ» °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¼Â°, ±×µéÀº »ý»êº¸´Ù´Â °í¿ëÀ» ¹ø¿µ°ú µ¿µî½Ã ÇÑ´Ù. Mr CaplanÀº ÀÌ°ÍÀ» ¡°ÀÏÀÚ¸® ¸¸µé±â ¼ºÇâ(Æí°ß)¡±À̶ó°í ºÎ¸¥´Ù. ¸¶Áö¸·À¸·Î ±×µéÀº ½ÇÁ¦º¸´Ù´Â (than they are) °æÁ¦Àû Á¶°ÇÀÌ ´õ ³ª»Ú´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÀÌ°ÍÀº ºñ°üÁÖÀÇ·Î ÇâÇÏ´Â ¼ºÇâÀÌ´Ù.
Mr CaplanÀº °æÁ¦¹®Á¦¿¡ °üÇÑ ÀÏ¹Ý ´ëÁßÀÇ °ßÇظ¦ °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀÇ °ßÇØ ¹× °íµî±³À°À» ¹ÞÀº Þª(ºñ) °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀÇ °ßÇØ¿Í ºñ±³ÇÔ¿¡ ÀÇÇؼ ÀÌ ÆíÇâÀÌ ¾ó¸¶³ª °ÇÑ °ÍÀΰ¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ´À³¦À» Á¦°øÇÑ´Ù. ¿¹¸¦ µé¾î¼, êúʤ(À¯°¡)°¡ ¿Ö ¿Ã¶ú´À³Ä°í Áú¹®À» ¹ÞÀ¸¸é ´ëÁßÀº ´ëü·Î ¼®À¯È¸»çÀÇ Å½¿åÀ» ºñ³ÇÑ´Ù. °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀº °ÅÀÇ ¸ðµÎ ¼ö¿ä¿Í °ø±ÞÀÇ ¹ýÄ¢À» Å¿ÇÑ´Ù. Mr CaplanÀº Àü¹®°¡µéµµ °¡²û¾¿ Ʋ¸®Áö¸¸ ÀÌ °æ¿ì¿¡´Â ´ëÁßÀÇ ½Ã°¢Àº ÀÌÄ¡¿¡ ¸ÂÁö ¾Ê´Ù. ¸¸¾à¿¡ ¼®À¯È¸»ç°¡ ´õ ³ôÀº ÀÌÀÍÀ» ¿øÇϱ⠶§¹®¿¡ êúʤ(À¯°¡) ¿À¸¥´Ù¸é À¯°¡´Â ¿Ö Á¾Á¾ Ç϶ôÇϴ°¡?
14-3-82
Surveys suggest that the more educated you are, the more likely you are to share the economists' view on this and other economic issues. But since everyone's vote counts equally, politicians merrily denounce ExxonMobil and pass laws against 'price-gouging'.
The public's anti-foreign bias is equally pronounced. Most Americans think the economy is seriously damaged by companies sending jobs overseas. Few economists do. People understand that the local hardware store will sell them a better, cheaper hammer than they can make themselves. Yet they are squeamish about trade with foreigners, and even more so about foreigners who enter their country to do jobs they spurn. Hence the reluctance of Democratic presidential candidates to defend free trade, even when they know it will make most voters better off, and the reluctance of their Republican counterparts to defend George Bush's liberal line on immigration.
The make-work bias is best illustrated by a story, perhaps apocryphal, of an economist who visits China under Mao Ze-dong. He sees hundreds of workers building a dam with shovels. He asks: 'Why don't they use a mechanical digger?' 'That would put people out of work,' replies the foreman. 'Oh,' says the economist, 'I thought you were making a dam. If it's jobs you want, take away their shovels and give them spoons.' For an individual, the make-work bias makes some sense. He prospers if he has a job, and may lose his health insurance if he is laid off. For the nation as a whole, however, what matters is not whether people have jobs, but how they do them. The more people produce, the greater the general prosperity.
±³À°À» ¸¹ÀÌ ¹ÞÀ»¼ö·Ï ÀÌ·± Àú·± °æÁ¦¹®Á¦¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡ÀÇ °ßÇظ¦ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ °ø°¨ÇÏ´Â °æÇâÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ¿©·¯ Á¶»ç(surveys)µéÀÌ ¾Ï½ÃÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¸ðµç »ç¶÷ÀÇ Ç¥°¡ ÆòµîÇÏ°Ô °è»êµÇ±â ¶§¹®¿¡, Á¤Ä¡ÀεéÀº Áñ°Ì°Ô ExxonMobil(¹Ì±¹ÀÇ °Å´ë ¼®À¯È¸»ç)¸¦ ºñ³ÇÏ°í ¡°°¡°Ý Þñö¢(»çÃë)¡±¸¦ ¹Ý´ëÇÏ´Â ¹ý·üÀ» Åë°ú½ÃŲ´Ù.
´ëÁßÀÇ Úã¿Ü±¹ ¼ºÇâµµ ¶È°°ÀÌ ¸í¹éÇÏ´Ù. ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ ¹Ì±¹ÀεéÀº ÀÏÀÚ¸®¸¦ ÇØ¿Ü·Î ³»º¸³»´Â ȸ»çµé¿¡ ÀÇÇؼ °æÁ¦°¡ ½ÉÇÏ°Ô ¼Õ»óÀ» ÀÔ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù. °ÅÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ±×·¸°Ô »ý°¢ÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù. »ç¶÷µéÀº ±×µéÀÌ Á÷Á¢ ¸¸µé ¼ö ÀÖ´Â °Í º¸´Ù´Â ´õ Àú·ÅÇÏ°í ´õ ÁÁÀº ¸ÁÄ¡¸¦ Áö¿ª ö¹°»óµéÀÌ ±×µé¿¡°Ô ÆǸÅÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ÀÌÇØÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·±µ¥µµ ±×µéÀº ¿Ü±¹ÀΰúÀÇ ¹«¿ª¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ±î´Ù·Ó°Ô ±¼°í ½ÉÁö¾î ±×µéÀÌ ÅðÂ¥ ³õ´Â ÀÏ(jobs)À» ÇÏ·¯ Àڱ⠳ª¶ó¿¡ µé¾î¿À´Â ¿Ü±¹Àο¡ ´ëÇؼ´Â ´õ ½ÉÇÏ°Ô ½Å°æÁúÀ» ³½´Ù. ±×·¯¹Ç·Î ¹ÎÁÖ´ç ´ëÅë·ÉÈ帴 ½ÉÁö¾î ÀÚÀ¯¹«¿ª(it)ÀÌ ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ À¯±ÇÀÚµéÀ» ´õ Àß»ì°Ô ÇØÁشٴ °ÍÀ» ¾Ë°í ÀÖÀ» ¶§¶óµµ ÀÚÀ¯¹«¿ªÀ» ¹æ¾îÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» ½È¾îÇÏ°í °øÈ´ç »ó´ë¹æ(counterparts)Àº George Bush(´ëÅë·É)ÀÇ À̹ο¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÚÀ¯³ë¼±À» ¹æ¾îÇϱ⸦ ½È¾îÇÏ´Â °Í(ÀÌ´Ù).
ÀÏÀÚ¸® ¸¸µé±â ÆíÇâÀº Mao Ze-dongö½ù»(Ä¡ÇÏ)ÀÇ Áß±¹À» ¹æ¹®ÇÑ ¾î´À °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡ÀÇ À̾߱â (Ãâó°¡ Àǽɽº·´Áö¸¸)¿¡ ÀÇÇؼ °¡Àå Àß çÓãÆ(¿¹½Ã)µÈ´Ù. ±×´Â ¼ö¹é ¸íÀÇ ³ëµ¿ÀÚµéÀÌ »ðÀ» °¡Áö°í ´ïÀ» °Ç¼³ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» ¸ñ°ÝÇÑ´Ù. ±×´Â ¡°¿Ö ÀúµéÀº ±¼Âø±â(mechanical digger)¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏÁö ¾Ê½À´Ï±î?¡±¶ó°í ¹°¾ú´Ù. ¡°±×·¯¸é(that) ÀúµéÀ» ÀÏÀÚ¸®¿¡¼ ÂѾƳ»°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù¡±¶ó°í ÇöÀå ÁÖÀÓÀÌ ¸»ÇÏ¿´´Ù. ¡°±×·¸½À´Ï±î?(Oh) ³ª´Â ´ç½ÅµéÀÌ ´ïÀ» °Ç¼³ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ÁßÀ̶ó°í »ý°¢Çß¾ú½À´Ï´Ù. ´ç½ÅµéÀÌ ¿øÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ÀÏÀÚ¸®¶ó¸é ÀúµéÀÇ »ðÀ» »¯°í ±×µé¿¡°Ô ¼ù°¡¶ôÀ» ÁÖ¼¼¿ä.¡± °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡´Â ¸»ÇÏ¿´´Ù. °³ÀÎÀ¸·Î¼´Â ÀÏÀÚ¸® ¸¸µé±â ¼ºÇâÀº ¾î´À Á¤µµÀÇ Àǹ̰¡ ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÏÀÚ¸®°¡ ÀÖÀ¸¸é °³ÀÎÀº ¹ø¿µÇÏ°í ¸¸¾à ½ÇÁ÷À» ÇÏ°Ô µÇ¸é °Ç°º¸Çè(ÇýÅÃ)À» »ó½ÇÇÏ°Ô µÉ Áöµµ ¸ð¸¥´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ±¹°¡ Àüü·Î¼´Â Áß¿äÇÑ °ÍÀº ±¹¹ÎÀÌ ÀÏÀÚ¸®°¡ ÀÖ´À³Ä ¾ø´À³Ä°¡ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ±¹¹ÎµéÀÌ ±× ÀÏÀ» ¾î¶»°Ô ÇÏ´À³Ä ÀÌ´Ù. ±¹¹ÎµéÀÌ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ »ý»êÇÒ¼ö·Ï ±¹¹ÎÀüüÀÇ ¹ø¿µµµ ´õ Ä¿Áø´Ù.
14-4-83
It helps, therefore, if people shift from less productive occupations to more productive ones. Economists, recalling that before the industrial revolution 98% of Americans were farmers, worry far less about downsizing than ordinary people do. Politicians, however, follow the lead of ordinary people. Hence, to take a more frivolous example, Oregon's ban on self-service petrol stations.
Finally, the public's pessimism is evident in its belief that most new jobs tend to be low-paying, that our children will be worse off than we are and that society is going to hell in a variety of ways. Economists, despite their dismal reputation, tend to be cheerier. Politicians have to strike a balance. They often find it useful to inflame public fears, but they have to sound confident that things will get better if they are elected.
Easier to diagnose than cure
In short, democracy is a mess. But dictatorship is worse. Mr Caplan observes that Winston Churchill's aphorism¡ªthat democracy is 'the worst form of government, except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time'¡ª usually cuts the conversation short. He does not think it ought to. To curb the majority's tendency to impose its economic ignorance on everyone else, he suggests we rely less on government and more on private choice. Industries do better when deregulated. Religions thrive when disestablished. Market failures should be tackled, of course, but always with an eye of the unintended consequences of regulation. Mr Caplan is better at diagnosis than prescription. His book is a treat, but he will never win elective office.
±×·¯¹Ç·Î »ç¶÷µéÀÌ º¸´Ù ´ú »ý»êÀûÀÎ Á÷¾÷¿¡¼ º¸´Ù ´õ »ý»êÀûÀÎ Á÷¾÷À¸·Î À̵¿ÇÑ´Ù¸é µµ¿òÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀº »ê¾÷Çõ¸í ÀÌÀü¿¡´Â ¹Ì±¹Àεé Áß¿¡¼ 98%°¡ ³óºÎ¿´´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» »ó±âÇϱ⠶§¹®¿¡ ÀÏ¹Ý »ç¶÷µé º¸´Ù´Â ¼ÒÇüÈ¿¡ ´ëÇؼ ÈξÀ ´ú °ÆÁ¤ÇÑ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª Á¤Ä¡ÀεéÀº ÀÏ¹Ý »ç¶÷µéÀÇ à»Óô(¼±µµ)¸¦ µû¶ó°£´Ù. ±×·¯¹Ç·Î º¸´Ù ´õ ÇÏÂúÀº ¿¹¸¦ µéÀÚ¸é Oregon(ñ¶)ÀÇ ¼¿ÇÁ ÁÖÀ¯¼Ò ±ÝÁö Á¶Ä¡ÀÌ´Ù.
¸¶Áö¸·À¸·Î, ´ëÁßÀÇ ºñ°üÁÖÀÇ´Â ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ »õ·Î¿î ÀÏÀÚ¸®´Â ÀúÀÓ±ÝÀÇ °æÇâÀÌ ÀÖ°í ÀڽĵéÀº ¿ì¸®º¸´Ù ´õ ¸ø»ì°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ¸ç ¿©·¯ °¡Áö ¸é¿¡¼ »çȸ´Â Áö¿ÁÀ¸·Î °¡°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ´ëÁßÀÌ ¹Ï°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â Á¡¿¡¼ ¸í¹éÇÏ´Ù. °æÁ¦Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ±×µéÀÇ À½Ä§ÇÏ´Ù´Â ÆòÆÇ¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í ´ëÁߺ¸´Ù´Â ³«°üÀûÀÎ °æÇâÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. Á¤Ä¡ÀεéÀÌ ±ÕÇüÀ» ¸ÂÃßµµ·Ï ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. Á¤Ä¡ÀεéÀº Á¾Á¾ ´ëÁßÀÇ ºÐ³ë¿¡ ºÒÀ» ºÙÀÌ´Â °ÍÀÌ À¯¿ëÇÏ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ¹ß°ßÇÏÁö¸¸ ±×µéÀÌ ¼±ÃâµÇ¸é »óȲÀÌ ´õ ³ª¾ÆÁú °ÍÀ̶ó°í È®½ÅÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â °Íó·³ µé¸®µµ·Ï ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù.
Ä¡·áº¸´Ù´Â Áø´ÜÀÌ ´õ ½±´Ù
¿ä¾àÇÏ¸é ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ´Â µÚÁ×¹ÚÁ×ÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª µ¶Àç´Â ´õ ³ª»Ú´Ù. Mr Caplan´Â Winston ChurchillÀÇ ÌíÏ£(°æ±¸)¡ª¶§¶§·Î Áö±Ý ±îÁö ½ÃµµÇØ º»(¿ª»çÀûÀ¸·Î) ´Ù¸¥ ¸ðµç Á¦µµ(forms)¸¦ Á¦¿ÜÇÏ°í ¡°¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ´Â ÃÖ¾ÇÀÇ ÅëÄ¡Çü½ÄÀÌ´Ù(±× Áß¿¡¼´Â Á¦ÀÏ ³ªÀº Á¦µµÀÌ´Ù)¡ª´Â ´ëü·Î ¸ðµç ³íÀÇ(conversations)¸¦ ¿ä¾àÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ °æÁ¦Àû ¹«Áö¸¦ ¸ðµç »ç¶÷¿¡°Ô °¿äÇÏ·Á´Â ´Ù¼öÀÇ °æÇâÀ» ¾ïÁ¦Çϱâ À§ÇÏ¿© ¿ì¸®´Â Á¤Ä¡(government)¿¡ º¸´Ù Àû°Ô ÀÇÁ¸ÇÏ°í °³ÀÎÀÇ ¼±Åÿ¡ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ ÀÇÁ¸ÇØ¾ß µÈ´Ù°í Mr CaplanÀº Á¦¾ÈÇÑ´Ù. »ê¾÷üµéÀº ±ÔÁ¦°¡ öÆóµÉ ¶§ ´õ ÀßÇÑ´Ù. Á¾±³´Â Þª(ºñ) ±¹±³ÈµÉ ¶§¿¡(±¹±³°¡ ¾øÀ» ¶§¿¡) ¹øâÇÑ´Ù. ¹°·Ð ã¼íÞ(½ÃÀå)ÀÇ ½ÇÆд ¼ÕÀ» ´ë¾ß°ÚÁö¸¸ ±ÔÁ¦ÀÇ ÀǵµÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Â °á°ú¿¡ ´ëÇØ Ç×»ó »ý°¢(eye)À» ÇÏ¸é¼ ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. Mr Caplan´Â ó¹æº¸´Ù´Â Áø´Ü¿¡ ´õ ÈǸ¢ÇÏ´Ù. ±×ÀÇ Ã¥Àº Ưº°ÇÑ À§¾ÈÀÌ µÇ´Â °ÍÀÌÁö¸¸ ±×´Â °áÄÚ ¼±ÃâÁ÷Àº ¾òÁö ¸øÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.