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Why are some African countries improving and others not?


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ÀÏÀÌ ÀÌ·¸°Ô µÈ Å« ¿øÀÎ ÁßÀÇ Çϳª´Â ¹Ý°ø(ÚãÍì)ÀÌ »ýÁ¸Á¶°ÇÀÎ ³ª¶ó¿¡¼­ ¹Ý°ø±³À°À» Á¦´ë·Î ½ÃŰÁö ¾Ê¾Ò±â ¶§¹®ÀÏ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. °ø»êÁÖÀÇÀÇ ¾Ç¸¶¼ºÀ» °¡¸£Ä¡Áö ¾Ê¾Ò±â ¶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù. ƯÈ÷ °ø»êÁÖÀÇ ¹ÙÀÌ·¯½º¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¸é¿ªÄ¡·áÁ¦ÀÎ ÀÚÀ¯¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǸ¦ Çб³¿¡¼­µµ °¡Á¤¿¡¼­µµ ±× ¾îµð¿¡¼­µµ ü°èÀûÀ¸·Î °¡¸£Ä¡Áö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. ÃʵîÇб³¿¡¼­ ´ëÇп¡ À̸£±â±îÁö ¹Ý°øÀÚÀ¯¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ ±³°ú¸ñÀÌ ¼³Ä¡µÈ ÀûÀÌ ¾ø´Ù. Àι®±³¾ç±³À°µµ Á¦´ë·Î ÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. Àΰ£ÀÇ º»Áú¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÌÇØ°¡ ±íÀº »ç¶÷Àº °áÄÚ °ø»êÁÖÀÇ ¸Á»ó¿¡ »ç·ÎÀâÈ÷Áö ¾Ê´Â´Ù. °ø»êÁÖÀÇ´Â Àΰ£À¸·Î¼­´Â ½ÇÇö ºÒ°¡´ÉÀÇ À̳äÀÎ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ºÒ°¡´ÉÀ» °¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù°í ¸Í½ÅÇÏ°í °­ÇàÇÏ¸é °³ÀÎÀûÀ¸·Î³ª »çȸÀûÀ¸·Î Àç¾ÓÀ» ¸éÄ¡ ¸øÇÏ°Ô µÇ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¼Ò·Ã°ú Áß°ø°ú įº¸µð¾Æ¿Í ºÏÇÑÀÇ »ýÁö¿ÁÀ» º¸¶ó.

ÀÚÀ¯¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ¿Í °ø»êÁÖÀÇÀÇ º»Áú¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÌÇØ¸¦ µ½°í Àι®±³¾ç ±³À°¿¡ º¸ÅÆÀÌ µÇ°íÀÚ ¡®¹Ý°øÀÚÀ¯ ±³¾ç¿µ¾î¡¯¸¦ ¿¬ÀçÇϰíÀÚ ÇÑ´Ù. µ¶Çظ¦ µ½°íÀÚ ÀÇ¿ª(ëòæ»)º¸´Ù´Â Á÷¿ª(òÁæ»)À» ÇÏ¿´´Ù. °íµîÇлýÀ̳ª ´ëÇлýµé¿¡°Ô, ¶Ç ÀþÀº Áö½ÄÀε鿡°Ô ¼Ò°³ÇØ Áֱ⠹ٶõ´Ù. ±×¸®ÇÏ¿© ¿µ¾î°øºÎµµ Çϰí ÀÚÀ¯¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ¿Í ½ÃÀå°æÁ¦¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÌÇØ¸¦ ½ÉÈ­½ÃŰ°í ¹Ý°øÁ¤½ÅÀ» ÇÔ¾çÇÏ¿© ÀÌ ¶¥¿¡¼­ °ø»êÁÖÀÇ ¾Ç±ÍµéÀ» ¸ô¾Æ³»°í ÀÚÀ¯¹ÎÁÖ ´ëÇѹα¹À» ¿µ¿øÈ÷ º¸ÀüÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÈûÀ» º¸Å Áֱ⠹ٶõ´Ù. ¾ÇÀº ¼±ÇÑ »ç¶÷µéÀÌ ÀϾ¼­ ¿ÇÀº ÀÏÀ» ÇÏÁö ¾Ê±â ¶§¹®¿¡ ¹øÃ¢ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

 


1. Why are some African countries improving and others not?
Governance and economy policy have a lot to do with it
¡ªThe Economist Mar 26th 2020

 

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MANY AFRICANS rightly complain that outsiders carelessly lump together its 54 different countries and talk of it as a place that rises or falls as one. Such generalisations are not just lazy but also obscure more than they clarify. The most likely trend over coming decades in Africa will be a clear divergence between how various countries are doing, argues Nic Cheeseman, an expert in African democracies. Some are becoming richer and more democratic even as others stay poor and undemocratic.
 
¸¹Àº ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«ÀεéÀº ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« ¹ÛÀÇ »ç¶÷µé(outsiders)ÀÌ ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« 54°³ ±¹°¡¸¦ ºÎÁÖÀÇÇϰԵµ ÇÑ µ¢¾î¸®·Î ¹­¾î¼­ ÇϳªÀÇ ³ª¶ó·Î¼­ ¿À¸£¶ô³»¸®¶ôÇÏ´Â ÇϳªÀÇ Áö¿ª(place)À¸·Î¼­ ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«¸¦ ¸»ÇÑ´Ù°í ´ç¿¬ÇÏ°Ô ºÒÆòÇÑ´Ù. ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ÀϹÝÈ­(ìéÚõûù)´Â °ÔÀ¸¸¦ »Ó ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ±× ÀϹÝÈ­µé(they)ÀÌ Áø½ÇÀ» Ù¥ãÆ(¸í½Ã)Çϱ⺸´Ù´Â µ¤¾î¹ö¸°´Ù(obscure). ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«¿¡ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ´Ù°¡¿Ã(coming) ¼ö½Ê ³â°£¿¡ À־(over) °¡Àå ÀÖÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ´Â(likely) °æÇâÀº ¿©·¯ ´Ù¾çÇÑ ³ª¶óµéÀÌ ÇöÀç ½ÇÇàÇϰí ÀÖ´Â(doing) ¹æ¹ý(how)»çÀÌÀÇ ºÐ¸íÇÑ Â÷ÀÌÀÏ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ(democracies) Àü¹®°¡ÀÎ Nic CheesemanÀÌ ÁÖÀåÇϰí ÀÖ´Ù. ´Ù¸¥ ³ª¶óµéÀº °¡³­ÇÏ°í ºñ¹ÎÁÖÀûÀ¸·Î ³²¾Æ Àִµ¥µµ ¾î¶² ³ª¶óµéÀº ´õ ºÎÀ¯ÇØÁö°í ÀÖ´Ù.

 
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This may seem obvious, but many left-wingers generalise that Africa is poor because its former colonial powers want to keep it that way, not because of the choices its leaders are making. Many conservatives, on the other hand, sweepingly say that corruption or bad governance are to blame, without taking account of the obstacles many African countries face. Yet it is in looking at the detail of how otherwise similar countries have taken different paths that lessons can be learned.

À̰ÍÀº ¸í¹éÇÑ »ç½ÇÀÏ °ÍÀÌÁö¸¸ ¸¹Àº ÁÂÀ͵éÀº ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«´Â ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«ÀÇ ÁöµµÀÚµéÀÌ ÇöÀç ¼±ÅÃÇϰí ÀÖ´Â Á¤Ã¥ÀÇ Â÷ÀÌ(choices) ¶§¹®ÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï°í îñ ½Ä¹ÎÁö °­±¹(powers)µéÀÌ ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«¸¦ ÇöÀç ÀÖ´Â ±×´ë·Î À¯ÁöÇϱâ(keep it that way)¸¦ ¿øÇϱ⠶§¹®À̶ó°í ÀϹÝÈ­ÇØ¼­ ¸»°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹Ý¸é¿¡ ¸¹Àº º¸¼öÁÖÀÇÀÚµéÀº ¸¹Àº ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« ±¹°¡µéÀÌ Á÷¸éÇϰí ÀÖ´Â(face) Àå¾Ö¹°µéÀ» °í·ÁÇÏÁö ¾Ê°í ºÎÆÐ¿Í ³ª»Û Á¤Ä¡(bad governance)°¡ ºñ³­À» ¹Þ¾Æ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù(are to blame)°í Æ÷°ýÀûÀ¸·Î ¸»Çϰí ÀÖ´Ù. ¿ì¸®°¡ ¹è¿ï ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ±³ÈÆÀº ´Ù¸¥ Á¡¿¡¼­´Â (ºÎÆÐ¿Í Á¤Ä¡ »©°í´Â) ëºÞÄ(À¯»ç)ÇÑ ³ª¶óµéÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ´Ù¸¥ ±æÀ» ÃëÇÏ°Ô µÇ¾ú´Â°¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¼¼ºÎ»çÇ×(detail)À» »ìÆìº¸´Â µ¥¿¡ ÀÖ´Ù.


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The first lesson, about the importance of simply having a state that works, comes from Rwanda and Burundi. Both are small, landlocked and densely populated. Since independence both saw genocides against their Tutsi minorities by their Hutu majorities. In the early 1990s Burundi was almost twice as rich as Rwanda. Yet since then incomes in Rwanda have

increased more than three times (adjusted for purchasing power). Those in Burundi have fallen. One big difference between the two is governance. Although neither country is democratic, Rwanda has a functional government and low corruption. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which promotes democracy, ranks Rwanda eighth in Africa in its index of governance, which looks at a variety of indicators including the rule of law, infrastructure and sanitation. Burundi comes 43rd.

ù ¹øÂ° ±³ÈÆ Áï ´Ü¼øÈ÷ Á¦´ë·Î ÀÛµ¿Çϰí ÀÖ´Â(works) ±¹°¡¸¦ °¡Áö´Â °ÍÀÇ Á߿伺¿¡ °üÇÑ ±³ÈÆÀº Rwanda¿Í Burundi¿¡¼­ ³ª¿Â´Ù. µÎ ³ª¶ó ¸ðµÎ ÀÛ°í À°Áö·Î µÑ·¯½Î¿© ÀÖ°í Àα¸¹Ðµµ°¡ ³ô´Ù. µ¶¸³ ÀÌÈÄ¿¡ µÎ ³ª¶ó´Â ´Ù¼ö ¹ÎÁ·ÀÎ Hutuðé(Á·)¿¡ ÀÇÇÑ Tutsi¼Ò¼ö¹ÎÁ·ÀÇ ÀÎÁ¾Çлì(genocides)À» º¸°Ô µÇ¾ú´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ±× ÀÌÈÄ RwandaÀÇ ¼ÒµæÀº 3¹è³ª Áõ°¡ÇÏ¿´´Ù. (½ÇÁú ±¸¸Å·Â ±âÁØÀ¸·Î Á¶Á¤Çؼ­). BurundiÀÇ ¼ÒµæÀº °è¼Ó Ç϶ôÇØ ¿Ô´Ù. µÎ ³ª¶ó »çÀÌ¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ÇϳªÀÇ Å« Â÷ÀÌ´Â Á¤Ä¡(ÅëÄ¡)ÀÌ´Ù. ºñ·Ï µÎ ³ª¶ó´Â ¹ÎÁÖÀûÀÌÁö´Â ¾ÊÁö¸¸ Rwanda´Â ´É·üÀû(functional)ÀÎ Á¤ºÎ¿Í ³·Àº ºÎÆÐ¸¦ °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǸ¦ ñòòä(ÁõÁø)½ÃŰ´Â ÀÏÀ» ÇÏ´Â Mo IbrahimÀç´ÜÀº ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«ÀÇ ÅëÄ¡ÁöÇ¥¿¡¼­ Rwanda¸¦ 8À§ÀÇ µî±ÞÀ» ÁÖ°í ÀÖ´Â µ¥ ÀÌ ÁöÇ¥´Â Ûöö½(¹ýÄ¡), »çȸÀû ±âº»½Ã¼³°ú À§»ýÀ» Æ÷ÇÔÇÏ´Â ´Ù¾çÇÑ Ã´µµ¸¦ Á¶»çÇÑ´Ù. Burundi´Â 43µîÀÌ´Ù..


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The second is that economic policies matter. When Kenya and Tanzania gained independence in the early 1960s they had similar economies, dependent on farming, and almost identical incomes per head. Both initially suppressed democracy to run authoritarian one-party states. But they chose very different economic models. Tanzania nationalised big companies and forced people onto collective farms in the name of ¡°African socialism¡±.

Kenya embraced free markets. Today Kenyans are 14% wealthier, adjusted for purchasing power (or 80% wealthier by market exchange rates).

Zimbabwe and Botswana further reinforce this. In the early 1980s Zimbabwe was richer than Botswana before Robert Mugabe destroyed its economy by wantonly printing banknotes and stealing farms for his cronies. Now Botswana is seven times richer.

µÎ ¹øÂ° ±³ÈÆÀº °æÁ¦Á¤Ã¥ÀÌ Áß¿äÇÏ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Kenya¿Í Tanzania°¡ 1960³â´ë ÃÊ¿¡ µ¶¸³À» ȹµæÇÏ¿´À» ¶§ ±×µéÀº ³ó¾÷¿¡ ÀÇÁ¸Çϰí 1ÀÎ´ç ¼ÒµæÀÌ °ÅÀÇ µ¿ÀÏÇÑ ³ª¶ó(economies)¿´´Ù. µÎ ³ª¶ó´Â ¸ðµÎ 1´ç µ¶Àç±¹°¡¸¦ ¿î¿µÇϱâ À§ÇØ ÀÚÀ¯¸¦ ¾ï¾ÐÇÏ¿´´Ù. ±×·¯³ª µÎ ³ª¶ó´Â ¸Å¿ì ´Ù¸¥ °æÁ¦¸ðµ¨À» ¼±ÅÃÇÏ¿´´Ù. Tanzania´Â ´ë±â¾÷À» ±¹À¯È­ÇÏ°í ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« »çȸÁÖÀÇ À̸§À¸·Î ÀιεéÀ» Áý´Ü³óÀå¿¡ °­Á¦·Î Áý¾î³Ö¾ú´Ù. Kenya´Â ÀÚÀ¯½ÃÀåÀ» Æ÷¿ëÇÏ¿´´Ù. ¿À´Ã³¯ Kenya»ç¶÷µéÀº ±¸¸Å·Â ±âÁØÀ¸·Î Á¶Á¤Çؼ­ 14%³ª ´õ ºÎÀ¯ÇÏ´Ù.(½ÃÀåÀÇ È¯À²·Î ±âÁØÇϸé 80% ´õ ºÎÀ¯ÇÏ´Ù.)

Zimbabwe¿Í Botswana´Â ÀÌÁ¡À» ´õ¿í´õ °­È­½ÃŲ´Ù. 1980³â´ë ÃÊ¿¡ Robert Mugabe ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ÁöÆó(banknotes)¸¦ Á¦¸Ú´ë·Î Âï¾î³»°í ¶Ç ÀÚ±â Ä£ÇÑ »ç¶÷µé¿¡°Ô ÁÖ±â À§ÇØ ³óÀåÀ» µµµÏÁúÇÔÀ¸·Î½á °æÁ¦¸¦ ÆÄ¸ê½Ã۱â Àü¿¡´Â Zimbabwe´Â Botswana º¸´Ù´õ ºÎÀ¯ÇÏ¿´´Ù. ¿À´Ã³¯ Botswana´Â 7¹è³ª ´õ ºÎÀ¯ÇÏ´Ù. (*Mugabe´Â »çȸÁÖÀÇ µ¶ÀçÀÚ)


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Perhaps the most striking example of how countries with good policies and robust institutions can climb into a virtuous cycle of development—and how those without can get stuck in cycles of poverty and conflict—is Mauritius, Africa¡¯s most successful economy. In 1961 James Meade, a Nobel laureate in economics, bluntly declared that ¡°the outlook for peaceful development is poor¡±. Mauritius was small, remote from trading partners and dependent on the export of sugar. Yet, since independence, income per person in Mauritius has increased about six times after inflation, making it Africa¡¯s second-richest country per person. Its success has drawn the interest of big-name economists. Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner decided that Mauritius did well because its economy was open. Paul Romer, another Nobel laureate, attributed its success to foreign investment into its export-processing zones.

¾Æ¸¶µµ ÁÁÀº Á¤Ã¥°ú °Ç°­ÇÑ Á¦µµ¸¦ °¡Áø ³ª¶óµéÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ¹ßÀüÀÇ ¼±¼øÈ¯(à¼âàü»)À¸·Î ¿Ã¶ó°¥ ¼ö Àִ°¡¸¦ ¡ª±×¸®°í ±×·± °ÍµéÀÌ ¾ø´Â ³ª¶óµé(those)ÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ºó°ï°ú °¥µîÀÇ ¼øÈ¯¿¡ ±³Âø(Îïó·)µÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´ÂÁö¸¦¡ª º¸¿©ÁÖ´Â °¡Àå ³î¶ó¿î ¿¹(çÓ)´Â ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«ÀÇ °¡Àå ¼º°øÀûÀÎ °æÁ¦±¹°¡(economy)ÀÎ MauritiusÀÌ´Ù. 1961³â¿¡, ³ëº§ °æÁ¦Çлó ¼öÀåÀÚÀÎ James Meade´Â ¡°¼øÁ¶·Î¿î ¹ßÀüÀÇ Àü¸ÁÀº ºó¾àÇÏ´Ù¡±¶ó°í ¹«¶Ò¶ÒÇÏ°Ô ¼±¾ðÇÏ¿´´Ù. Mauritius´Â ÀÛ°í ¹«¿ª »ó´ë±¹°¡·ÎºÎÅÍ ¸Ö¸® ÀÖ°í ¼³ÅÁ ¼öÃâ¿¡ ÀÇÁ¸Çϰí ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. ±×·¯³ª µ¶ ¸³ÀÌÈÄ MauritiusÀÇ 1ÀÎ´ç ¼ÒµæÀº ¹°°¡»ó½Â(inflation)À» °í·ÁÇÏ´õ¶óµµ 6¹è Áõ°¡ÇÏ¿´À¸¸ç À̰ÍÀº Mauritius¸¦ °³Àμҵ濡 À־ ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«¿¡¼­ µÎ ¹øÂ°·Î °¡Àå ºÎÀ¯ÇÑ ³ª¶ó·Î ¸¸µé¾ú´Ù. MauritiusÀÇ ¼º°øÀº ÀÏ·ù °æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚµéÀÇ °ü½ÉÀ» ²ø¾î¿Ô´Ù. Jeffrey Sachs¿Í Andrew Warner´Â Mauritius´Â °³¹æ°æÁ¦¿´±â ¶§¹®¿¡ ¼º°øÇÏ¿´´Ù°í °á·Ð ³»·È´Ù. ¶Ç ´Ù¸¥ ³ëº§°æÁ¦Çлó ¼ö»óÀÚÀÎ Paul Romer´Â MauritiusÀÇ ¼º°øÀ» Mauritius°¡ ¼öÃâ°¡°ø(processing)Áö¿ª¿¡ ¿Ü±¹ÅõÀÚ¸¦ À¯Ä¡ÇÑ ´öºÐÀ̶ó°í ÇÏ¿´´Ù.


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Having sensible economic policies is not enough, though. Several other African countries also tried to boost manufacturing by attracting foreign investors to export-processing zones. Only a few, including Ethiopia, Lesotho and South Africa, succeeded. Arvind Subramanian and Devesh Roy, two economists who also looked at Mauritius, concluded that its trade and investment policies accounted for only part of its success. Another important ingredient was the strength of its institutions. Since independence its elections have been peaceful, its government has followed the law, its courts have been honest and corruption has been tolerably low. It regularly comes top in the Ibrahim governance index.

±×·¯³ª ¶È¶ÈÇÑ °æÁ¦Á¤Ã¥À» °¡Áö´Â °Í¸¸À¸·Î´Â ÃæºÐÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Ù. ´Ù¸¥ ¸î¸î ¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« ³ª¶óµéÀº ¶ÇÇÑ ¼öÃâ °¡°øÁö´ë¿¡ ¿Ü±¹ ÅõÀÚÀÚµéÀ» À¯Ä¡ÇÏ¿© Á¦Á¶¾÷À» ÁõÆø½ÃŰ·Á°í ³ë·ÂÇß¾ú´Ù. Ethiopia¿Í Lesotho ¹× South Africa¸¦ Æ÷ÇÔÇØ¼­ ¼Ò¼öÀÇ ³ª¶ó¸¸ÀÌ ¼º°øÇÏ¿´´Ù. Mauritius¸¦ °üÂûÇÑ µÎ °æÁ¦ÇÐÀÚÀÎ Arvind Subramanian ¿Í Devesh Roy´Â MauritiusÀÇ ¹«¿ª°ú ÅõÀÚÁ¤Ã¥Àº ¼º°ø ¿äÀÎÀÇ(its success) ÀϺθ¸À» ³ªÅ¸³½´Ù°í(account for) °á·ÐÀ» ³»·È´Ù. ¶Ç ÇϳªÀÇ Áß¿äÇÑ ¿äÀÎÀº Á¦µµ(±â°ü)ÀÇ ÈûÀ̾ú´Ù. µ¶¸³ ÀÌÈÄ·Î MauritiusÀÇ ¼±°Å´Â ÆòÈ­½º·¯¿ü°í, Á¤ºÎ´Â ¹ý(Ûö)À» µû¶ú°í, ¹ý¿øÀº Á¤Á÷ÇÏ¿´°í ºÎÆÐ´Â °ßµô ¼ö ÀÖÀ» Á¤µµ·Î ½ÉÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù(low). Mauritius´Â Ibrahim ÅëÄ¡ÁöÇ¥¿¡¼­ ±ÔÄ¢ÀûÀ¸·Î Åé¿¡ ¿À¸¥´Ù.


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Mauritius is all the more striking when set against its bigger neighbour, Madagascar, which seemed far more likely to succeed because of its richer natural resources and bigger population. In the 1970s, just as Mauritius began attracting foreign investors, Madagascar thought it was a fine idea to send them packing. It expelled the American ambassador and nationalised two American oil companies. While Mauritius was helping find export markets for its sugar farmers, Madagascar began grabbing land from its commercial farmers. It is one of the few countries in the world to have become poorer over the past 50 years, because of disastrous socialist policies and repeated political crises.

Mauritius´Â º¸´Ù ´õ Å« ÀÌ¿ô³ª¶óÀÎ Madagascar¿Í ´ëºñÇØº¸¸é ´õ¿í´õ ³î¶ó¿îµ¥, Madagascar´Â º¸´Ù ´õ dzºÎÇÑ Ãµ¿¬ÀÚ¿ø°ú º¸´Ù ´õ Å« Àα¸ ¶§¹®¿¡ ÈξÀ ´õ ¼º°øÇÒ °Íó·³ º¸¿´±â ¶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù(,which=because it). 1970´ë¿¡, Mauritius°¡ ¿Ü±¹ÀÎ ÅõÀÚÀÚµéÀ» ²ø¾îµéÀ̱⠽ÃÀÛÇϰí ÀÖÀ» ¹Ù·Î ±× ¶§¿¡ Madagascar´Â ¿Ü±¹ÀÎ ÅõÀÚÀÚµéÀ» º¸µû¸® ½Î¼­ ³»º¸³»´Â °ÍÀÌ ÈǸ¢ÇÑ ¾ÆÀ̵ð¾î¶ó°í »ý°¢ÇÏ¿´´Ù. Madagascar´Â ¹Ì±¹ ´ë»ç(ÓÞÞÅ)¸¦ Ãß¹æÇÏ°í µÎ °³ÀÇ ¹Ì±¹È¸»ç¸¦ ±¹À¯È­(ÏÐêóûù)ÇÏ¿´´Ù. Mauritius°¡ ±× ³ª¶óÀÇ ¼³ÅÁ ³óºÎµéÀ» À§Çؼ­ ¼öÃâ½ÃÀåÀ» °³Ã´(find)ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» µµ¿ÍÁÖ°í ÀÖÀ» µ¿¾È¿¡ Madagascar´Â »ó¾÷Àû ³óºÎµé·ÎºÎÅÍ ÅäÁö¸¦ ¸ô¼ö(grab)Çϱ⠽ÃÀÛÇÏ¿´´Ù. Madagascar´Â ¼¼°è¿¡¼­ ÆÄ¸êÀûÀÎ »çȸÁÖÀÇ Á¤Ã¥°ú ¹Ýº¹µÇ´Â Á¤Ä¡À§±â ¶§¹®¿¡ Áö³­ 50³â¿¡ °ÉÃļ­ ´õ °¡³­ÇÏ°Ô µÈ ¼Ò¼öÀÇ ³ª¶ó ÁßÀÇ ÇϳªÀÌ´Ù.

 
¥°-8-8
The most important lesson—and the one that offers the most hope—is that many of these trends are mutually reinforcing. Countries with more capable bureaucracies and more open democracies tend to do better economically and invest more in education. Stronger economies and better schooling, in turn, help slow population growth and improve dependency ratios. Not all countries are in this virtuous cycle. But for those that are, the differences are striking. Kenyan women, for instance, are not just much richer than their cousins in Tanzania, they also each have 1.4 fewer children. Rwanda¡¯s people are not just better off than those in Burundi, their literacy rate is five points higher, too.
 
°¡Àå Áß¿äÇÑ ±³ÈÆÀº¡ª±×¸®°í °¡Àå ¸¹Àº Èñ¸ÁÀ» Á¦°øÇØÁÖ´Â ±³ÈÆ¡ªÀÌ·¯ÇÑ °æÇâ(trends:Á¦µµ¿Í Á¤Ã¥) ÁßÀÇ ¸¹Àº °ÍµéÀÌ ¼­·Î¸¦ °­È­ÇØÁÖ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. [»ó½Â(ßÓã«)ÀÛ¿ëÀ» Çϰí ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ̴٣ݴõ À¯´ÉÇÑ °ü·á±â±¸¿Í ´õ °³¹æÀûÀÎ ¹ÎÁÖÁ¦µµ¸¦ °¡Áø ³ª¶óµéÀº °æÁ¦ÀûÀ¸·Î ´õ ÀßÇÏ°í ±³À°¿¡ ´õ ¸¹ÀÌ ÅõÀÚÇÏ´Â °æÇâÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. º¸´Ù °­ÇÑ °æÁ¦¿Í º¸´Ù ´õ ÁÁÀº ±³À°Àº Àα¸Áõ°¡¸¦ ´À¸®°Ô Çϰí Ãë¾÷ºñÀ²(dependency ratios)À» °³¼±ÇÏ°Ô µÈ´Ù. ¸ðµç ³ª¶óµéÀÌ ÀÌ·± ¼±¼øÈ¯ »óÅ¿¡ ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀº ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¼±¼øÈ¯»óÅ¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ³ª¶ó¿¡°Ô´Â ±× Â÷ÀÌ(±×·¸Áö ¾Ê´Â ³ª¶ó¿ÍÀÇ)´Â ³î¶ó¿ï Á¤µµ´Ù. ¿¹¸¦ µé¾î, KenyaÀÇ ¿©ÀÚµéÀº ´ÜÁö TanzaniaÀÇ »çÃ̵é(¿©¼ºµé)º¸´Ù ÈξÀ ´õ ºÎÀ¯ÇÒ »Ó ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ¾ÆÀ̸¦ °¢°¢ 1.4¸í ´õ Àû°Ô °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Ù. RwandaÀεéÀº Burundi»ç¶÷µé º¸´Ù ÈξÀ ´õ Àß »ì »Ó ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ±×µéÀÇ ¹®ÇØ·ÂÀº ¶ÇÇÑ 5Æ÷ÀÎÆ®³ª ´õ ³ô´Ù.
 

¥°-9-9
Many parts of Africa are still deeply troubled. Nigeria¡¯s economy is not growing quickly enough to keep pace with its population because of inept governance. South Africa, the economic powerhouse, is a laggard that can barely keep its lights on because of corruption and mismanagement. The Sahel is stuck in cycles of violence, high fertility and illiteracy that will take decades to break. Covid-19 is a huge risk to the continent¡¯s people and will disrupt its economies. But, over the longer term, the major trends taking hold—rapid urbanisation; increasing migration and remittances; a rising share of children in school; the hundreds of thousands of students at universities abroad—are reasons for hope. Given a fair wind, these powerful forces promise to bring more democracy and wealth to hundreds of millions of people.
 
¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«ÀÇ ¸¹Àº Áö¿ªÀº ¾ÆÁ÷µµ ´ë´ÜÈ÷ È¥¶õ½º·´´Ù. NigeriaÀÇ °æÁ¦´Â ¼­Åõ¸¥ ÅëÄ¡ ¶§¹®¿¡ Àα¸¼ö¿¡ º¸Á¶¸¦ ¸ÂÃâ ¸¸Å­ ÃæºÐÈ÷ »¡¸® ¼ºÀåÇÏÁö ¸øÇϰí ÀÖ´Ù. °æÁ¦¹ßÀü¼ÒÀÎ ³²¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä« °øÈ­±¹Àº ºÎÆÐ¿Í À߸øµÈ °ü¸®(±¹°¡¿î¿µ) ¶§¹®¿¡ Á¦´ë·Î ÀÛµ¿À» ÇÏÁö ¸øÇϰí ÀÖ´Â ´À¸²º¸ÀÌ´Ù. Sahel(»çÇ϶ó»ç¸· ÁÖº¯ÀÇ ÃÊ¿øÁö´ë) Áö¿ª ³ª¶óµéÀº ±Øº¹ÇÏ´Â µ¥ (break) ¼ö½Ê ³âÀÌ °É¸± Æø·Â°ú ³ôÀº Ãâ»êÀ²°ú ¹®¸Í(ÙþØî)ÀÇ ¼øÈ¯¿¡ °íÂøµÇ¾î ÀÖ´Ù. Covid-19(Äڷγª ¹ÙÀÌ·¯½º)´Â ±× ´ë·ú(¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«)ÀÇ »ç¶÷µé¿¡°Ô °Å´ëÇÑ À§ÇèÀÌ µÇ°í °æÁ¦¸¦ ¸Á°¡¶ß¸®°Ô µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª Àå±âÀûÀÎ ÀÔÀå¿¡¼­ º¸¸é, ÀÚ¸®¸¦ Àâ°í ÀÖ´Â Áß¿äÇÑ Ãß¼¼(õÙá§)µé¡ª±Þ¼ÓÇÑ µµ½ÃÈ­, Áõ°¡Çϰí ÀÖ´Â ÇØ¿ÜÀ̹Î(migration)°ú ¼Û±Ý, Áõ°¡ÇÏ´Â ÃëÇоƵ¿ ºñÀ², ¼ö½Ê¸¸ÀÇ ÇØ¿Ü ´ëÇÐ À¯Çлý¡ªÀº Èñ¸ÁÀ» °¡Áú ¸¸ÇÑ ÀÌÀ¯°¡ µÈ´Ù. ¼øÇ³À» Ÿ¸éÀº ÀÌµé °­·ÂÇÑ ÈûµéÀº ¼ö¾ïÀÇ »ç¶÷µé¿¡°Ô ´õ ¸¹Àº ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀÇ¿Í ºÎ(Üù)¸¦ °¡Á®¿Ã °ÍÀ» ¾à¼ÓÇØ ÁÙ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


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