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[½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°ü]¡°What I think we're going to see is, the North Koreans have already put in 10 posts, they brought in recoilless rifles, which is a heavier weapon, et cetera, they're beginning to guard within the DMZ again. South Korea has said, they're planning to put forces back up on the DMZ again, and so you know, we're going close proximity. And I think there's a greater possibility that there could be some tensions there.¡±

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½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº 9¡¤19 ±º»çÇÕÀÇ ÀÌÈÄ Çѱ¹±ºµµ DMZ¿¡¼­ ´õ ¹°·¯³­ °÷¿¡ º´·ÂÀ» ¹èÄ¡ÇÏ°í ´ë½Å DMZ¿¡´Â Á¶±â°æº¸¿ëÀ¸·Î ¼¾¼­¿Í ÀüÀÚÀåºñ¸¦ ¹èÄ¡Çß°í ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Å¼¼ ÀüȯÀÌ Çѱ¹¿¡ ½ÇÁúÀûÀÎ ÀÌÁ¡À» Áá´Ù°í Æò°¡Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ±×·¯¸é¼­ Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¡°»óȲ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹ÝÀÀÀ» ±ÕÇü ÀÖ°Ô À¯ÁöÇÏ±æ ¹Ù¶õ´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

¾Õ¼­ Áö³­ 21ÀÏ Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ±º»çÁ¤ÂûÀ§¼º ¹ß»ç¿¡ µû¸¥ ´ëÀÀÁ¶Ä¡·Î 9¡¤19 ±º»çÇÕÀÇ ÀϺΠÁ¶Ç×ÀÇ È¿·ÂÀ» Á¤Áö½ÃÄ×°í, ÀÌ¿¡ ºÏÇÑÀº 23ÀÏ »ç½Ç»ó ±º»çÇÕÀÇ Àü¸é Æı⸦ ¼±¾ðÇß½À´Ï´Ù. Çѱ¹ ±º ´ç±¹Àº 27ÀÏ ºÏÇÑ ±ºÀÌ 9¡¤19 ³²ºÏ ±º»çÇÕÀÇ¿¡ µû¶ó Æı«ÇÑ ºñ¹«ÀåÁö´ë(DMZ) ³» °¨½ÃÃʼÒ(GP)¿¡ º´·Â°ú Àåºñ¸¦ ´Ù½Ã ÅõÀÔÇÏ°í °¨½Ã¼Ò¸¦ ¼³Ä¡ ÁßÀÎ °ÍÀ¸·Î µå·¯³µ´Ù¸ç ±º °¨½ÃÀåºñ·Î ÃÔ¿µÇÑ »çÁøÀ» °ø°³Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ±è¸í¼ö ÇÕÂüÀÇÀåÀº 27ÀÏ ºÏÇÑ ±º Á¶Ä¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ´ëÀÀ Â÷¿ø¿¡¼­ Çѱ¹ ±º GP Àç°¡µ¿ °¡´É¼ºÀ» ½Ã»çÇß½À´Ï´Ù.

ÇÑÆí ½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº ÇöÀç ±¹Á¦Á¤¼¼·Î ÀÎÇØ ºÏÇÑÀÌ ´õ °ø°ÝÀûÀÎ Çൿ¿¡ ³ª¼³ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í °æ°íÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ºÏ´ë¼­¾çÁ¶¾à±â±¸(NATO) ¿¬ÇÕ±º »ç·É°üÀ» Áö³½ ½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¿Í Áßµ¿ÀÇ ºÐÀïÀÌ Àü ¼¼°è¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ¹ÌÄ¡°í ÀÖ´Ù¸ç ÀÌ°°ÀÌ ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

[½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°ü]¡°The war has created an atmosphere where China and Russia has grown closer together, North Korea has benefited from that as well. I think that North Korea probably senses that they have greater latitude to be more aggressive. In other words, they're now in a position where they can focus more on advancement aggressively on their own timeline, instead of worrying about whether or not they need to reduce tensions or manage tensions.¡±

½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº ¡°ÀüÀïÀ¸·Î ÀÎÇØ Áß±¹°ú ·¯½Ã¾Æ°¡ ´õ °¡±î¿öÁö´Â ºÐÀ§±â°¡ Á¶¼ºµÇ¸é¼­ ºÏÇѵµ ±× ÇýÅÃÀ» ´©¸®°í ÀÖ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°ºÏÇÑÀº ¾Æ¸¶µµ ÀڽŵéÀÌ ´õ °ø°ÝÀûÀ¸·Î ÇൿÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¿©Áö°¡ ´õ Ä¿Á³´Ù°í ´À²¼À» °Í¡±À̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ±×·¯¸é¼­ ¡°ºÏÇÑÀº ÀÌÁ¦ ±äÀå ¿ÏÈ­³ª °ü¸®¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ÆÁ¤ÇÒ ÇÊ¿ä¾øÀÌ ÀڽŵéÀÇ ÀÏÁ¤¿¡ ¸ÂÃç (¹«±â °³¹ßÀ») °ø°ÝÀûÀ¸·Î ÁøÀü½ÃÅ°´Âµ¥ ´õ ÁýÁßÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ÀÔÀ塱À̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

¶Ç ºñ·Ï ³°¾ÒÁö¸¸ ´ë±Ô¸ð Àç·¡½Ä ±º»ç·ÂÀ» º¸À¯ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ºÏÇÑÀÌ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ÀüÀïÀ» ÁöÄѺ¸¸é¼­ ¸¹Àº °ÍÀ» ¹è¿ì°í ·¯½Ã¾Æ¿Íµµ °ü·Ã ÇùÀǸ¦ ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù¸ç ¡°±×µéÀÌ Áغñż¼¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¹«¾ùÀ» ¹è¿ïÁö°¡ °¡Àå ¿ì·ÁµÈ´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ °ø°ÝÀûÀÎ ¹«±â ÁøÀü ¼öÁØ¿¡ ´ëÇØ »ó´çÈ÷ ¿ì·ÁÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù¸ç, ºÏÇÑÀº °ú°Åº¸´Ù ÈξÀ ´õ ´Ù¾çÇÏ°í Ä¡¸íÀûÀÎ ¹Ì»çÀÏ°ú ÇÙ ´É·ÂÀ» º¸À¯ÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ÃÖ±Ù À§¼ºÀ» ½î´Â µî °ÅÀÇ ¸ðµç ºÐ¾ß¿¡¼­ ¹ßÀüÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

ÇÏÁö¸¸ µ¿½Ã¿¡ ¹ÌÇѵ¿¸Íµµ ±× ¾î´À ¶§º¸´Ù °­·ÂÇØÁ³´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº µ¿¸Í 70ÁÖ³âÀ» ¸ÂÀº ¿ÃÇØ ¿­¸° ¹ÌÇÑ Á¤»óȸ´ã¿¡¼­ ¡®¿ö½ÌÅÏ ¼±¾ð¡¯À» ¹ßÇ¥ÇÏ°í, Ä·ÇÁ µ¥À̺ñµå¿¡¼­ ¹ÌÇÑÀÏ Á¤»óȸÀǸ¦ °³ÃÖÇÑ »ç½ÇÀ» »ó±âÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ±×·¯¸é¼­ ¡®¿ö½ÌÅÏ ¼±¾ð¡¯°ú °ü·ÃÇØ ¾ç±¹ÀÌ °è¼ÓÇؼ­ ÁøÀüÀ» ³»¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

[½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°ü]¡°We need to make sure that we're acting with a sense of urgency on what we agreed to, in the Washington declaration. I really applaud that declaration. But it requires a lot of action, in order to increase, you know, the deterrent effect and to make sure it's effective and increase the readiness of the alliance itself.¡±

½ºÄ³ÆÛ·ÎƼ Àü »ç·É°üÀº ¡°¿ö½ÌÅÏ ¼±¾ð¿¡¼­ ÇÕÀÇÇÑ ³»¿ëÀ» ±ä¹Ú°¨À» °¡Áö°í ½Çõ¿¡ ¿Å°Ü¾ß ÇÑ´Ù¡±¸ç ¡°±× ¼±¾ðÀ» ³ôÀÌ Æò°¡ÇÏÁö¸¸ ½ÇÁ¦·Î ¾ïÁö È¿°ú¸¦ ³ôÀÌ°í È¿·ÂÀ» È®ÀÎÇÏ¸ç µ¿¸ÍÀÇ Áغñż¼¸¦ °­È­Çϱâ À§Çؼ­´Â ¸¹Àº ÇൿÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÏ´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. À̹ۿ¡ ¹ÌÇÑ µ¿¸Í°£ ÁöÈÖÅëÁ¦ºÎ°£ Åë½Å°ú µ¥ÀÌÅÍ Àü¼ÛÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ°í, Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¹æ°ø°ú ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾î¸¦ ´õ¿í °­È­ÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

¶Ç ¹ÌÇÑÀÏ 3±¹ ±º»çÇù·Â°ú °ü·ÃÇؼ­´Â ¡°Åë½Å°ú Á¤º¸ ±³È¯, µ¥ÀÌÅÍ ±³È¯À» ÅëÇØ ºÏÇÑÀÇ À§ÇùÀ¸·ÎºÎÅÍ 3±¹À» ¹æ¾îÇÒ ¼ö Àִ ü°è¸¦ ±¸ÃàÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ´ÙÀ½ ´Ü°è¡±¶ó°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù.

¡°·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ´ëºÏ ±º»ç±â¼ú Á¦°ø ¿ì·Á¡±

ÇÑÆí À̳¯ Åä·Ð¿¡ Âü¼®ÇÑ ºòÅÍ Â÷ CSIS Çѱ¹ ¼®Á´ ·¯½Ã¾Æ°¡ ºÏÇÑ¿¡ Á¤ÂûÀ§¼º ±â¼úÀ» Áö¿øÇß´Ù¸é ¡°ÀÌ´Â ºù»êÀÇ ÀÏ°¢¡±ÀÏ °ÍÀ̶ó¸ç, ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ´ëºÏ ±º»ç±â¼ú Áö¿øÀº ¹Ì±¹¿¡ Á¤Ã¥ÀûÀÎ µô·¹¸¶¸¦ Á¦±âÇÑ´Ù°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ƯÈ÷ ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ´ëºÏ, ´ë·¯ Ãß°¡ Á¦À縦 ÅëÇØ Çù·ÂÀ» ¸·À» ¼ö´Â ¾øÀ» °ÍÀ̸ç, ºÏÇÑÀÌ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ±º»ç ±â¼úÀ» ¹Þ´Â °ÍÀ» ¸·±â À§ÇØ ºÏÇÑ¿¡ Àμ¾Æ¼ºê¸¦ Á¦°øÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ´ëºÏ Á¦ÀçÀÇ ±Ù°£À» Èçµå´Â ÀÏÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. Áß±¹°úÀÇ Çù·Â°ú °ü·ÃÇؼ± ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÅÂÆò¾ç°æÁ¦Çù·Âü(APEC) ȸÀǸ¦ °è±â·Î ¿­¸° ¹ÌÁßÁ¤»óȸ´ã¿¡¼­ ºÏÇÑ ¹®Á¦ ³íÀÇ¿¡ ÁøÀüÀÌ ¾ø¾ú´Ù°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.

[Â÷ ¼®ÁÂ]¡°I don't get a clear sense from the administration, in conversations that I've had post APEC summit whether any progress was made on this. There was a moderate progress made on mill-mill, on fentanyl on AI working group but nothing on North Korea. I haven't heard anything on North Korea yet. That seems to be the only play here when it comes to trying to sever this technology tie.¡±

Â÷ ¼®Á´ ¡°APEC Á¤»óȸ´ã ÀÌÈÄ ¹ÙÀ̵ç Á¤ºÎ¿Í ³»°¡ ³ª´« ´ëÈ­¿¡¼­ ºÏÇÑ ¹®Á¦¿¡ ÁøÀüÀÌ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù´Â ½ÅÈ£¸¦ ¹ÞÁö ¸øÇß´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ¹ÌÁß ±º»çÇù·Â, Æ柴Ò, ÀΰøÁö´É(AI)¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÁøÀüÀÌ Á¶±Ý ÀÖ¾úÀ» »ÓÀ̶ó´Â °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù. Â÷ ¼®Á´ ¡°ºÏ·¯ ±â¼ú Çù·ÂÀ» ²÷´Â À¯ÀÏÇÑ ¹æ¹ýÀº Áß±¹°úÀÇ Çù·Â»ÓÀÎ °Í °°´Ù¡±¸é¼­µµ Áß±¹ÀÇ È£ÀÀ ¿©ºÎ´Â ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ȸÀÇÀûÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ¼ö¹Ì Å׸® Àü ¹é¾Ç°ü ±¹°¡¾Èº¸È¸ÀÇ(NSC) º¸Á°üµµ À̳¯ Åä·Ð¿¡¼­ ºÏ·¯ ±º»çÇù·Â¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¡°¸Å¿ì ¿ì·ÁµÇ´Â ¹ßÀü¡±À̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.

[Å׸® Àü º¸Á°ü]¡°I think that's also very concerning development, because they are going to they have enhanced cooperation, right? They're going to provide signals intelligence, sources, analysis, sensitive technology, and all of that, which will only help North Korea accelerate is development of more capable operational satellite in the future as well as the missile program.¡±

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