Leaders
66. The pandemic threat
Apr 30th 2009 From The Economist print edition

It's deadly seriousso even if the current threat fades, the world needs to be better armed

66-1-312
IT IS said that no battle-plan survives contact with the enemy. This was certainly true of the plan drawn up over the past few years to combat an influenza pandemic. The generals of global health assumed that the enemy would be avian flu, probably passed from hens to humans, and that it would strike first in southern China or South-East Asia. In fact, the flu started in an unknown pig, and the attack came in Mexico, not Asia.
The hens, though, deserve some credit. The world has not had a pandemic (a global epidemic) of influenza since 1968. Four decades are long enough to forget that something is dangerous, and people might have done so had they not spent the past ten years considering the possibility that a form of bird flu which emerged in Hong Kong in 1997 might be one mutation away from going worldwide.
The new epidemic was raised on April 29th to just one notch below the level of a certified pandemic by the World Health Organisation. In an effort to halt the spread of the disease, Mexico's president, Felipe Calderon, has announced that non-essential services should close down between May 1st and 5th, and people should stay at home. Part of the reason for worry is that, unlike ordinary flu, which mostly carries off the old, the victims of this disease are mostly young and otherwise healthy.

A. 어휘
leader (신문) 사설, 논설. pandemic (전 세계로 퍼지는) 대 유행병.
current 현재의. fade 시들다. true of ...에 적용되다. draw up 작성하다.
combat 싸우다. arm 무장하다. general 장군. assume 가정하다. avian 鳥類(조류)의.
credit 功績(공적), 공로, 명예가 되는 일. emerge 출현하다. mutation 돌연변이, 변이.
epidemic 유행병. notch 級(급), 단계, 눈금. certified 허가된, 증명된. halt 정지하다.
spread 擴散(확산). carry off (병 따위가) 생명을 빼았다. victim 희생자.

B. 구문
- no battle-plan survives contact with the enemy.
[어떤 작전계획도 적과의 만남에서 살아남지 못한다(적과의 전투에서는 작전계획대로 전투가 진행되지는 않는다)]
- The hens, though, deserve some credit.
[그러나 닭들은 공로상을 받을 만하다]
- one mutation away from going worldwide.
[전 세계로 퍼져 나가기 전의 한 단계 앞의 변이]
- The new epidemic was raised . . . the World Health Organisation.
[그 신종 전염병은 4월 29일 세계보건기구가 인정하는 대 유행병의 한 등급 아래까지 등급이 올려졌다]

66-2-313
Still, this epidemic has not actually killed many people yet. That there have been a mere handful of confirmed deaths is probably the result of a lack of proper tests. But even if all the possibles are counted in, a couple of hundred fatalities cannot compare with the 30,000 deaths caused in America each year by seasonal influenza. So how scared should we be?

Damned if you do, damned if you don't
As far as this epidemic is concerned, it's too early to tell. One unknown is how widespread the virus is in Mexico. If it is ubiquitous, and had not been noticed earlier because it emerged during the normal flu season, then this epidemic may turn out to be insignificant, at least to start with. No flu death is welcome, but in this case the new disease might not increase the immediate burden greatly. But if the new strain is relatively rare, or what is being seen now is a more dangerous mutation of what had once been a mild virus, then the proportion of infected people dying may already be high. The death-toll, then, will rise sharply as the disease spreads.
Either way, the authorities were right to hit red alert. Influenza pandemics seem to strike every few decades and to kill by the millionat least 1m in 1968perhaps 100m in the 'Spanish' flu of 1918-19. And even those that start mild can turn dangerous.

A. 어휘
mere ...에 불과한, 단순한. a handful of 소수의. confirmed 확인된. lack 부족.
proper 적절한. possibles 가능성, 있을 수 있는 것. count in ...을 셈에 넣다.
fatality 죽음, 사망자 수. scare 겁을 주다.
ubiquitous 도처에 존재하는, 遍在(편재)하는. turn out 판명되다.
insignificant 중요하지 않는. to start with 첫째로, 맨 먼저. immediate 직접의.
burden 짐, 부담. strain 종족, 혈통, 긴장, 詩歌(시가), 선율. relatively 상대적으로.
mutation 돌연변이. mild 柔順(유순)한. infected 감염된. death-toll 사망자 수.
authorities 관계당국. red alert 적색경보. every few decades 수십 년마다 한 번.

B. 구문
- As far as this epidemic is concerned
[이 전염병이 관계되는 한]
- the proportion of infected people dying may already be high.
cf. people dying=people who are dying
[ 감염환자들의 사망비율은 이미 높을 지도 모른다.]