21. Malthus, the false prophet
(May 15th 2008 From The Economist print edition)

21-1-98
The pessimistic parson and early political economist remains as wrong as ever

AMID an astonishing surge in food prices, which has sparked riots and unrest in many countries and is making even the relatively affluent citizens of America and Europe feel the pinch, faith in the ability of global markets to fill nearly 7 billion bellies is dwindling. Given the fear that a new era of chronic shortages may have begun, it is perhaps understandable that the name of Thomas Malthus is in the air. Yet if his views were indeed now correct, that would defy the experience of the past two centuries.
Malthus first set out his ideas in 1798 in “An Essay on the Principle of Population”. This expounded a tragic twin trajectory for the growth of human populations and the increase of food supply. Whereas the natural tendency was for populations to grow without end, food supply would run up against the limit of finite land. As a result, the “positive checks” of higher mortality caused by famine, disease and war were necessary to bring the number of people back in line with the capacity to feed them.
In a second edition published in 1803, Malthus softened his original harsh message by introducing the idea of moral restraint. Such a “preventive check”, operating through the birth rather than the death rate, could provide a way to counter the otherwise inexorable logic of too many mouths chasing too little food. If couples married late and had fewer children, population growth could be sufficiently arrested for agriculture to cope.

A. 어휘
the false prophet 거짓 선지자. pessimistic 비관적인. parson 목사, 교구목사.
the pessimistic parson and early political economist 비관주의적인 목사이며 정치경제학자.(Malthus). cf. the parson and the economist 목사와 경제학자(2人).
astonishing 놀라운. surge 들끓음, 動搖(동요). riot 폭동. unrest 불안.
relatively 비교적으로. affluent 부유한. pinch 꼬집기, 압박, 곤궁, 위급. belly 배, 복부.
dwindle 감소되다. chronic 慢性的(만성적)인. in the air 퍼지다, 蔓延(만연)하다.
correct 정확한. defy 무시하다, 거부하다, 저항하다. expound 상세히 설명하다.
trajectory 直交切線(직교절선), 彈道(탄도), 궤도. tendency 경향, 추세.
finite 有限(유한)의, 제한된. positive 긍정적인. higher mortality 보다 높은 사망률.
famine 기근. bring back 돌려주다. in line with ...에 따라,...에 순응하여.
capacity 수용능력, 용량, 용적. feed-fed-fed 먹이다. edition 版(판). restraint 억제.
preventive check 예방적 억제. counter 거스르다, 반격하다. otherwise 그렇지 않다면.
inexorable 냉혹한. logic 논리. chase 추격하다. sufficiently 충분히.
arrest 沮止(저지)하다, 체포하다. cope 대처하다.

B. 구문
-the natural tendency . . . to grow without end.
cf. 부정사의 의미상주어→for+목적격.
. for populations to grow→populations grow
[ 인구가 끝없이 성장하는 것이 자연스런 경향이었다.]
-As a result 'the positive checks' . . . the capacity to feed them.
[결과적으로 饑饉(기근)과 질병과 전쟁이 초래하는 높은 사망률에 의한 “긍정적인 인구억제”는 사람의 수를 인구를 먹일 수 있는 수용능력에 맞추기 위해서 필요하였다.]
- If couples married late . . . could be . . . to cope.
cf. 가정법과거→현재사실의 반대의 경우를 假定(가정).
형식: if+주어+ 과거동사 . . ., 주어+과거조동사+동사
ex. As I am not a bird, I do not fly to you. (직설법현재)
→If I were a bird, I would fly to you. (가정법과거)

21-2-99
It was the misfortune of Malthus--but the good luck of generations born after him--that he wrote at an historical turning point. His ideas, especially his later ones, were arguably an accurate description of pre-industrial societies, which teetered on a precarious balance between empty and full stomachs. But the industrial revolution, which had already begun in Britain, was transforming the long-term outlook for economic growth. Economies were starting to expand faster than their populations, bringing about a sustained improvement in living standards.
Far from food running out, as Malthus had feared, it became abundant as trade expanded and low-cost agricultural producers like Argentina and Australia joined the world economy. Reforms based on sound political economy played a vital role, too. In particular, the abolition of the Corn Laws in 1846 paved the way for British workers to gain from cheap food imports.
Malthus got his demographic as well as his economic predictions wrong. His assumption that populations would carry on growing in times of plenty turned out to be false. Starting in Europe, one country after another underwent a “demographic transformation” as economic development brought greater prosperity. Both birth and death rates dropped and population growth eventually started to slow.

A. 어휘
historical turning point 역사의 전환점. arguably 論證(논증)할 수 있는.
accurate 정확한. pre-industrial societies 산업화이전의 사회.
teeter 시소하다, 동요하다, 아래위로 움직이다. precarious 불안정한.
balance 평형, 天秤(천칭), 저울. transform 변형시키다. outlook 전망. expand 팽창하다.
bring about 가져오다, 招來(초래)하다. sustained 지속적인.
far from food running out 식량이 떨어지기는커녕. abundant 풍부한. sound 건전한.
vital 중요한, 활기찬. abolition 폐지.
the Corn Laws 穀物條例(곡물조례)[곡물의 수입에 무거운 세금을 부과하던 법률]. imports 수입품. demographic 인구통계학적인. prediction 예언.
A as well as B=not only B but also A. B뿐 아니라 A도.
assumption 假定(가정). carry on 계속하다.
in times of plenty 먹고사는 것이 豊足(풍족)할 때에. undergo 겪다, 경험하다.
prosperity 번영.

B. 구문
- which teetered on . . . full stomachs.
[산업화이전사회는 배고픔과 배부름 사이에서 불안정하게 움직였다.]