Leaders
Africa's population
106. The lesson from Sodom and Gomorrah
Aug 27th 2009 From The Economist print edition

Africa's fertility rates are falling. Can the continent take advantage?

106-1-492
CAREFULLY stepping round another heap of fetid refuse in Sodom and Gomorrah, it is easy to despair of Africa's future. Accra's notorious slum is aptly named. Here, about 30,000 families (no one knows for sure how many) crowd into a warren of hastily thrown-together shacks on the fringes of Ghana's capital: there is no power, sewerage or running water, diarrhoea and other diseases are rife and deadly fires rapidly take hold. It seems to contain all that is wrong with modern Africatoo many people, deep poverty and the failure of inept or corrupt governments to do anything to help. Yet Sodom and Gomorrah also has a more hopeful story to tell.
Africa is undergoing a "demographic transition". As our briefing shows, African women are now following their sisters in Asia and the rich world by bearing steadily fewer children. Admittedly, Africa is lagging behind Asia by about 20 years, and the continent's fertility rates are still high, but the trend is clear. In Mozambique in 1950 a woman had, on average, 6.5 children over her lifetime now she has five. In Ethiopia the figure has dropped from seven to five in Cote d'Ivoire it has almost halved from its peak in Botswana it has more than halved. The only exceptions are war-torn places such as Congo.

A. 어휘
leader 신문사설. fertility rate 출산율. fertility 肥沃(비옥), 多産(다산).
continent 대륙. heap 쌓아 놓은 무더기. fetid 惡臭(악취)를 풍기는.
Sodom and Gomorrah 아프리카 가나의 수도에 있는 한 빈민굴의 별명.
refuse 쓰레기. despair 절망하다. despair of 단념하다. notorious 악명 높은.
aptly 적절히. for sure 확실하게. warren 많은 사람이 살고 있는 가옥, 토끼 사육장.
hastily thrown-together 급히 얽어 맨. shack 오두막. fringe 변두리.
capital 首都(수도). power 전기. sewerage 하수도. running water 수돗물.
diarrhoea 痢疾(이질). rife 유행하고 있는. take hold 위력을 떨치다.
inept 무능한. corrupt 부패한. undergo 경험하다. demographic 인구통계학적.
transition 변천, 변화. briefing 신문의 요약기사. bear 아이를 낳다.
admittedly 명백히, 自認(자인)한 바와 같이. lag 쳐지다. trend 경향, 추세.
on average 평균적으로. figure 數値(수치). exception 예외.
war-torn 전쟁으로 황폐화된. tear-tore-torn 찢다.

106-2-493
HIV/AIDS, killer of mothers and fathers in their prime, is the miserable cause of part of this shift. But more important is the decline in birth rates when people leave the countryside. And the overflowing chaos of Sodom and Gomorrah is part of the fastest urbanisation in history. Africa's rush to the cities is not just changing the location of Africa's populations, it is changing their structure, too.
In Latin America and Asia this transition yielded a huge economic gain, called the "demographic dividend". As birth rates decline, the proportion of children shrinks and the working-age population bulges, as is happening now in Africa. That can kick-start industrialisation. Factories employ low-skilled farmers fresh from the country, which increases productivity and prosperity, which creates demand, and so it goes on. Some studies reckon that demography explains as much as a third of Asia's economic growth.
It is this opportunity that Africa must prepare for. The "dividend" is not automatic. It has to be earned. A productive, healthy workforce could lift large parts of Africa out of poverty, but an expanding cohort of jobless, idle and frustrated young men will create political and social instability. Just think of the riots and deaths sparked by rampaging hordes of youths in Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Kenya.

A. 어휘
in their prime 한창때에 있는. miserable 비참한. shift 변화, 전환, 이동.
decline 쇠퇴. overflowing 넘쳐흐르는. chaos 혼돈. urbanisation 도시화.
Sodom and Gomorrah 아프리카 가나의 수도에 있는 한 빈민굴의 별명.
transition 변천, 변화. yield 생산하다. economic gain 경제적 이득.
demographic 인구의. dividend 이익 배당, 보너스, 덤으로 주는 것.
shrink-shrank-shrunk/shrunken 줄어들다, 움츠리다. bulge 불룩해지다.
kick-start 시동시키다. industrialisation 산업화. productivity 생산성.
prosperity 번영. reckon 계산하다, 간주하다. demography 인구.
lift 들어 올리다. expanding 팽창하고 있는. cohort 단체, 보병대, 무리.
frustrated 좌절된. instability 불안정. riot 폭동, 소란. rampaging 광란하는.
horde 무리, 유목민 집단.